Xero share price has 19% upside potential, top brokers say

Xero has pared gains this year, can it bounce from its lows?

| More on:
A group of six work colleagues gather around a computer in an office situation and discuss something on the screen as one man points and others look on with interest

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Xero shares have traded down in 2022
  • Brokers are constructive on the ASX tech share, but there are still a number of hold and sell calls
  • In the last year of trade, the Xero share price has clipped a 34% loss

Shares of Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) have jumped from the open today and now rest at $87.18 apiece.

The Xero share price has struggled in 2022 and having booked extensive losses since trading resumed in January.

TradingView Chart

Brokers are bullish on Xero

Despite the ASX tech stock's lacklustre performance this year to date, analyst sentiment appears to be tilted towards the upside for Xero.

JP Morgan identified its reasoning for Xero in a recent note, stating the company "has proven its credentials in the ANZ market and is now looking to replicate its model in its international markets".

The JP Morgan team added:

In addition, the company is embarking on a 'platform' strategy that is expected to lead to higher ARPU [average revenue per user] and growth in LTV [loan-to-value].

We rate Xero overweight with the stock trading below our price target [$97/share].

Meanwhile, around 59% of brokers covering Xero have it rated as a buy right now, whereas around 18% have it rated as a hold, according to Bloomberg data. The remaining coverage urges clients to sell Xero shares.

Within this group, the consensus price target is $100.97 per share, offering around 19% upside potential should the Xero share price surge to that mark.

But the company needs "big customer growth" to first get there, in the opinion of Bloomberg Intelligence senior equity analyst Matt Ingram. He wrote:

Xero needs to sustain its 20% plus 2019-22 customer growth and lift ARPU, while controlling costs to reach a decent level of profit.

ARPU is the key driver; International's NZ$358, well below QuickBook's NZ$783 outside the US, needs to improve outside Australia.

Xero also needs to sustain strong subscriber growth outside the US. Operating leverage may boost operating income, but investment will curb profit.

In the last year of trade, the Xero share price has clipped a 34% loss, after heading south a further 6% this past single month.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Broker Notes

Happy man holding Australian dollar notes, representing dividends.
Broker Notes

Why this cheap ASX All Ords stock could rise 50% and pay an 11% dividend yield

Goldman Sachs thinks that big returns could be coming for buyers of this stock.

Read more »

Woman using a pen on a digital stock market chart in an office.
Broker Notes

CSL stock: Buy, hold, or sell in 2025?

Let's see what analysts are saying about this blue chip giant at the start of the year.

Read more »

a woman holds a facebook like thumbs up sign high above her head. She has a very happy smile on her face.
Broker Notes

Goldman Sachs says this ASX 200 stock is a top buy in January

The broker is forecasting some big returns for investors this year.

Read more »

A man working in the stock exchange.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's what brokers are recommending as buys right now.

Read more »

A group of businesspeople clapping.
Broker Notes

2 of the best ASX 200 shares to buy in the Asia-Pacific

Goldman Sachs is speaking very highly about these stocks this month.

Read more »

Excited group of friends sitting on sofa watching sports on TV and celebrating.
Broker Notes

4 ASX 200 shares just upgraded for 2025 by top brokers

Leading brokers are forecasting strong performance in 2025 from these four ASX 200 companies.

Read more »

A young woman holds her hand to her mouth in surprise as she reads something on her laptop.
Broker Notes

This beaten down ASX 200 stock could rise 90%

Bell Potter thinks this stock could be dirt cheap after a recent selloff.

Read more »

Broker Notes

Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers believe that now could be the time to snap up these stocks.

Read more »