'Never waste a crisis': Expert picks one ASX share he'd buy right now

Competitors have their hands tied behind their backs, and customers are climbing over each other. What more could a company ask for?

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

With the share market in such turmoil, it's hard to know which stocks to buy right now, even though prices are so low.

You might be rightly concerned about buying into a company that will face further headwinds from rising interest rates or commodity prices.

L1 Capital head James Hawkins, however, had a hot tip for investors this week.

He thinks Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) is very much an "interesting stock" at the moment.

And that's not just because of the obvious resurgence in travel since COVID-19 restrictions were lifted.

Businesswoman whispering in male colleague's ear as he looks surprised.

Image source: Getty Images

Qantas will take off using these tailwinds

In an industry notorious for slashing prices at all costs to win market share, Qantas' biggest rival is hamstrung.

"Its major competitor… is now owned by private equity," Hawkins told the On The Couch podcast.

"In my view, Bain [Capital], that owns Virgin [Australia], will be rational in their pricing."

Moreover, Qantas has been much smarter than its international competitors in that it had the foresight to hedge its fuel costs.

Crude oil prices have soared in the past six months, sending the cost of aviation fuel to the roof.

"Qantas has hedged out its pricing for 90% of its fuel needs for the first half of calendar 2022, and it's hedged 50% [for] first quarter FY23, and 30% second quarter, FY23," said Hawkins.

"If you look at the US airlines, they're unhedged to oil, and they also are very leveraged post-COVID."

'Not wasting a crisis'

Although the height of the coronavirus pandemic was a special kind of hell for aviation businesses, Qantas took full advantage of the break in day-to-day operations.

The result is, according to Hawkins, that the airline is "a very different company" to what it was pre-COVID. 

"It's really lived the adage of 'never waste a crisis' through taking out nearly $1 billion of costs over the last couple of years," he said.

"I think the management teams are very capable there. So I think they've done a good job of not wasting a crisis, as well as realising some land values at Mascot and the like."

Australians are climbing over each other to travel

The accumulated demand from two years of travel restrictions has the industry primed for a big year.

"There's a habit once you're on your first holiday to think, 'Geez, that's the first holiday I've been on in three years. And that was fun. I'm going to book another one and another one.'"

The coronavirus no longer seems to put off travellers from seeing the world.

"If I can get COVID here in Australia, why would I not get COVID in in a different state?" said Hawkins.

"We've seen that in the US, leisure [traffic] is close to 100% of pre-pandemic levels."

Qantas shares have gained 5.7% so far this year.

Hawkins is far from the only professional bullish on the airline's stocks. According to CMC Markets, nine out of 13 analysts rate the ASX share as a strong buy.

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Travel Shares

two business people shake hands through the glass wall of a business office with a board table and laptop computer in view between them.
Travel Shares

Flight Centre Travel Group sells Pedal Group stake for $61.7 million

Flight Centre Travel Group sells its Pedal Group stake for $61.7 million, with proceeds supporting growth in its global travel…

Read more »

Man sitting in a plane seat works on his laptop.
Broker Notes

Down 34% in 2026, are Virgin Australia shares a good buy today?

A leading analyst delivers his outlook for Virgin Australia’s beaten-down shares.

Read more »

Pilot on the phone looking distraught.
Travel Shares

Why Qantas shares nosedived 16% in March

Investors evacuated their Qantas shareholdings in March. But why?

Read more »

Happy woman trying to close suitcase.
Travel Shares

Webjet share price lifting off on CEO bombshell

Webjet shares are charging higher following unexpected leadership news.

Read more »

A female cabin crew member on a place looks like she has a headache.
Travel Shares

Why Qantas shares could be flying into turbulence

Leading experts warn Qantas shares could face a big earnings decline.

Read more »

A woman reaches her arms to the sky as a plane flies overhead at sunset.
Travel Shares

Virgin Australia shares fly 13% higher: Is this the start of the rebound we've all been waiting for?

Here's how far analysts think the airline's shares could go.

Read more »

A woman looks nervous and uncertain holding a hand to her chin while looking at a paper cut out of a plane that she's holding in her other hand.
Travel Shares

Qantas stock is down 17.7% in a month. Time to buy?

Qantas is back to April prices.

Read more »

a man stands with travel documents in hand with a roller wheel suitcase and extended handle next to him holding his forefinger to his lip as he ponders his next move in a deserted airport. as the Qantas share price falls
Broker Notes

Down 15% in March, should you buy Qantas shares today?

A leading analyst provides his outlook for Qantas shares.

Read more »