CBA share price pushes higher on consensus-beating quarterly update

CBA's Q3 update has smashed expectations. Here's by how much…

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • CBA's shares are rising following the release of its third quarter update
  • Australia's largest bank has reported a cash profit of $2.4 billion for the three months
  • This has smashed the market's expectations

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price is rising on Thursday.

In morning trade, the banking giant's shares are up 0.7% to $102.19.

This compares favourably to a decline of 0.8% by the ASX 200 index.

A young male ASX investor raises his clenched fists in excitement because of rising ASX share prices today.

Image source: Getty Images

Why is the CBA share price rising?

Investors have been bidding the CBA share price higher today after responding positively to the bank's third-quarter update.

For the three months ended 31 March, compared to the quarterly average during the first half, Australia's largest bank reported a 1% decline in operating income to $6,103 million and flat cash earnings of $2,400 million.

This reflects 3% volume growth and higher non-interest income, which helped offset continued margin pressure from elevated swap rates, mix effects, and competition.

How does this compare to expectations?

As you might have guessed with the CBA share price outperformance today, this result was better than the market was expecting.

For example, the team at Goldman Sachs note that the bank's quarterly cash earnings are run rating 10% ahead of its second half forecasts. It said:

Cash profit from continuing operations in 3Q22 of c.A$2.4 bn was flat on the 1H22 quarterly average but run-rating c.10% ahead of what is implied by our 2H22E forecasts.

And while the broker acknowledges that a bad and doubtful debts (BDDs) benefit helped drive the stronger than expected result, it highlights that its pre-provisioning operating profit (PPOP) was still ahead of expectations. Goldman said:

The better-than-expected cash earnings result was largely due to lower-than-expected BDDs (benefit of A$48 mn), but PPOP was also run-rating c.4% above our implied 2H22E forecasts on better performance on costs (NIMs and revenues largely in line with GSe).

CBA smashes consensus estimates

CBA also outperformed Citi's estimates, which were already sitting 3% ahead of consensus forecasts. The bank's cash profit was 6% ahead of the broker's expectations and 9% ahead of the analyst consensus estimate.

Another positive was CBA's net interest margin (NIM). While the bank didn't reveal what its NIM was, Goldman Sachs estimates that it was 1.87%. Although this is down from 1.92% during the first half, it is ahead of Goldman's second half estimate of 1.86%.

All in all, CBA has been given the tick of approval for its third quarter. However, at this stage, both Citi and Goldman don't see enough value in the CBA share price to recommend it as a buy.

They continue with their sell ratings. Though, that could change once they have updated their financial models.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

A man looking at his laptop and thinking.
Bank Shares

What's next for ANZ shares after expectations-busting results?

The banking giant is trading in the green again today.

Read more »

man looking through binoculars
Bank Shares

Why is everyone talking about the CBA share price this week?

CBA has been in the spotlight this week.

Read more »

A man in a business suit peers through binoculars as two businesswomen stand beside him looking straight ahead at the camera.
Bank Shares

3 Australian bank stocks that could outperform global peers again in 2026 and 2027

These are my three top picks.

Read more »

View from below of a banker jumping for joy in the CBD surrounded by high-rise office buildings.
Bank Shares

Up 19% in 7 weeks, are CBA shares a good buy today?

A leading investment expert delivers his outlook on CBA's surging shares.

Read more »

A man is shocked about the explosion happening out of his brain.
Bank Shares

Forget NAB shares, this ASX fintech stock could double in value

Most brokers see downside for NAB, but upside of up to 185% for this ASX share.

Read more »

A young man looks like he his thinking holding his hand to his chin and gazing off to the side amid a backdrop of hand drawn lightbulbs that are lit up on a chalkboard.
Bank Shares

What next for CBA shares after expectations-busting results?

The banking giant's shares are flying high.

Read more »

A young female ASX investor sits at her desk with her fists raised in excitement as she reads about rising ASX share prices on her laptop.
Bank Shares

How much have investors made in big four bank shares over the past year?

Once again, ASX bank stocks are proving a strong investment.

Read more »

A man in a suit smiles at the yellow piggy bank he holds in his hand.
Bank Shares

How the CBA share price rocketed 17% in February

CBA shares stormed higher in February, even with the big four bank stock trading ex-dividend.

Read more »