Expert says investors are 'missing this inflection point' for QBE shares

The tides might be turning for QBE, one expert reckons.

| More on:
A share market analyst looks at his computer screen in front of him showing ASX share price movements

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • QBE shares have staged a comeback rally in 2022 and are well in the green since trading resumed in January 
  • Experts are turning more constructive on the stock and note it has the potential to deliver upside in 2022 based on the current macroeconomic climate 
  • In the last 12 months, the QBE share price has gained 26% 

Shares of QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) are tracking higher on Friday and now rest in the green.

They initially spiked from the open, however, have since taken a backward step from intraday highs of $12.41.

At the time of writing, investors are paying $12.32 apiece for QBE shares.

Is the QBE share price at a tipping point?

After a difficult period these past few years, the QBE share price has managed to reverse course in 2022 and trade 9% higher.

Meanwhile, over the past month of trade, QBE has jumped 8% and has managed to book a 26% gain during the last 12 months.

Perhaps it's these returns that have sophisticated investors more constructive on the insurance giant, backed by its underlying fundamentals.

That could be the case, according to hedge fund manger Mark Landau, chief investment officer (CIO) of L1 Capital.

Sure, its share price has faltered in recent years, but the devil's in the detail with QBE, Landau says.

"If you look in detail at the last result of QBE's profits, if you take away all the actuarial assumptions that effectively lower their profit, their profit was actually 40% better than what they told the market," he recently told Livewire.

Even though investors "hate the stock", there are a number of catalysts feeding into QBE's operating story right now.

One of those factors is the amount of short-dated bonds QBE holds on its books, Livewire says, noting that for "every 1% increase in bond yields, the insurer gets a roughly 20% increase in profits".

Landau says that no one expects QBE to deliver higher profits, "let alone 20% [profit] on top of the underlying insurance business".

On this backdrop, the CIO submits that investors who are overlooking QBE right now could be missing an inflection point "similar to what we had in 2001".

Analysts are positive about the QBE share price too, touching on similar points to Landau in their recent assessment of the company.

In particular, each of UBS and JP Morgan rate QBE as a buy, valuing it at $15 and $15.50 per share respectively.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Financial Shares

A little girl with red hair runs excitedly with a rocket strapped to her back, trying to launch.
International Stock News

Which ASX small-cap stock is leaping 13% by doubling down on access to cash

This expands its reach in India.

Read more »

A group of business people pump the air and cheer.
Mergers & Acquisitions

This ASX small-cap stock is exploding 75% on takeover news!

The takeover premium is large.

Read more »

Two brokers analysing stocks.
Broker Notes

Don't miss these changes to broker ratings on ASX shares

The verdicts are in.

Read more »

private health insurance diagram.
Financial Shares

Why did the NIB share price just hit a 3-year low?

Investors reacted negatively to an announcement from the private health insurer.

Read more »

A woman sits on a chair smiling as she shops online.
Financial Shares

Zip share price hits yet another 52-week high. Is it still undervalued?

Is Zip on the cusp of an earnings explosion?

Read more »

Business people discussing project on digital tablet.
Financial Shares

Up 60% in 2024, are AMP shares a buy? Here's an analyst's rating

Can this resurgent financial giant keep rising?

Read more »

A businessman carrying a briefcase looks at a square peg or block sinking into a round hole.
Earnings Results

Block shares are diving 7% despite significant profit growth in third quarter

Financial services company Block has released its 3Q FY24 report.

Read more »

A businesswoman on the phone is shocked as she looks at her watch, she's running out of time.
Dividend Investing

Want to bag the upcoming Macquarie dividend? You better hurry!

Here’s what you need to know.

Read more »