Are CBA shares a buy? Here's what analysts say

There's a disconnect between market sentiment and analyst sentiment for CBA.

| More on:
Two brokers analysing the share price with the woman pointing at the screen and man talking on a phone.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • CBA shares have clawed back gains after prices whipsawed back towards 52-week highs in recent weeks 
  • Analysts aren't as constructive on the CBA share price and the majority of coverage rates it a sell 
  • In the last 12 months, CBA shares have spiked around 18% higher 

Shares of banking major Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) are tracking lower today at $104.99.

After a wavy run this past half-year, CBA shares are now back within their 52-week highs and are now up around 4% for the year.

TradingView Chart

Are CBA shares a buy?

It appears that analyst sentiment has shifted towards CBA, with the majority of coverage now rating it a sell.

According to Bloomberg data, 10 firms rate CBA a sell at present, 4 a hold, with the remainder saying to buy. Two of those are Jefferies and Bell Potter, valuing the bank at $116 and $108 per share respectively.

However, the consensus price target from this entire list is $95.31 per share, suggesting a potential downside target if these brokers are right.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley aren't so sure about CBA and urge their clients to sell shares at the time of writing. The broker values CBA at $92 per share and reaffirmed its underweight rating in a recent note.

It was quick to point out that CBA's mortgage growth has slowed in 2022, something it reckons stems from increasing competition and higher funding costs in the segment.

Morgan Stanley also highlights that CBA no longer benefits from the $51 million term-funding facility provided by the RBA either, a lower-cost source of funding than traditional measures.

During the "price war of 2021" it was this term-funding facility that "supported above system loan growth" throughout the year, the broker says.

JP Morgan has followed a similar vein in its review of CBA, advocating clients to sell or reduce their exposure.

The firm values CBA at just $94 per share, a 10% downside target at the time of writing. It too noted the pressures from mortgage markets, and expects banks such as CBA "to face greater [net interest margin] NIM pressure in the short-term than NAB/ANZ".

In the last 12 months, CBA shares have spiked around 18% higher and are up 4% this year to date.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Bank Shares

Happy young woman saving money in a piggy bank.
Bank Shares

Are ANZ shares still in the buy zone near 6-month highs

Bank stocks have rallied hard in 2024.

Read more »

Bank building in a financial district.
Bank Shares

Is this the $350 million reason the Big Four bank shares are falling today?

It’s another challenging day for banks.

Read more »

Young professional person providing advise to older couple.
Bank Shares

NAB shares sink on ASIC legal action

The banking giant failed 345 of its most vulnerable customers.

Read more »

Nervous customer in discussions at a bank.
Bank Shares

Is the NAB share price actually expensive?

Should investors be looking at NAB stock as a bargain?

Read more »

CBA share price represented by branch welcome sign
Bank Shares

Own CBA shares? Here's a major milestone you may have missed this week

CBA shares marked a groundbreaking achievement this week.

Read more »

A mature age woman with a groovy short haircut and glasses, sits at her computer, pen in hand thinking about information she is seeing on the screen.
Bank Shares

Up 52% in a year! Is this rocketing ASX bank stock the perfect pick for my retirement portfolio?

Are CBA shares right for retirees?

Read more »

A businessman slips and spills his coffee.
Bank Shares

Why is the CBA share price taking a tumble on Wednesday?

CBA shares are taking a fall today. Let’s find out why.

Read more »

A woman puts up her hands and looks confused while sitting at her computer.
Bank Shares

Why are ANZ shares tumbling 4% on Wednesday?

What’s going on with the big four bank’s shares today? Let’s find out why they are falling.

Read more »