The Rio Tinto share price rallied 19% in the March quarter. What's next?

Interesting times ahead.

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Key points

  • Rio Tinto shares continue to deliver upside in 2022 
  • Analyst sentiment is mixed, and commodity markets have started to cool off – so what's next? 
  • In the last 12 months, the Rio Tinto share price has climbed 5% 

Shares in Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) rallied 19% in March and are up around 19% this year to date as well, after thrusting from a bottom of $87.51 on 10 November.

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What's next for the Rio Tinto share price?

We aren't in the business of forecasting stock prices, but we can check in to see what the sentiment is by what analysts are saying. There's good evidence for using the 'wisdom of the crowd' in making educated projections in finance, and we'll draw on that.

Around 41% of analysts rate Rio as a buy right now, according to Bloomberg data. Whereas 53% say it's a hold, and 6% urge their clients to sell Rio shares.

Collectively, the consensus price target is $118.81 from this list, meaning Rio could just be about fairly priced in this regard.

This comes as no surprise to analysts at JP Morgan who noted Rio's 2021 earnings came "broadly in line with market expectations."

Without the earnings surprise to excite investors, JP Morgan seems to think of other names that could get more attention.

Not only that, but Rio is trading at a fair value, it says. "This year is another where shareholders stand to gain a strong dividend yield (approximately 8%)," the broker noted.

"However," JP Morgan continued, "the stock has traded through our NPV, which is now 13% below the last close."

"We acknowledge iron ore continues to trade above our expectations and retain our Neutral rating".

Macquarie doesn't agree and values Rio at $140 per share, followed closely by those at Jefferies at $139 per share.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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