Pendal (ASX:PDL) share price in the spotlight as analysts tip higher takeover bid

Let's take a closer look.

| More on:
A graphic showing three hands holding red paddles with the word BID, indicating a bidding war for an ASX share company

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • UBS calls Perpetual’s $2.4bn takeover offer for Pendal as “opportunistic” as it undervalues the business 
  • The broker believes Perpetual could offer around $7 a share (cash and scrip) for the deal to become EPS neutral 
  • The Pendal share price slips 1.5% in morning trade following its stunning 18% jump yesterday 

Talk of a higher takeover offer did not stop the Pendal Group Ltd (ASX: PDL) share price from slipping lower this morning.

The listed fund manager got a non-binding $2.4 billion bid from rival Perpetual Limited (ASX: PPT) yesterday, which UBS called "opportunistic".

This leaves room for Pendal to get a better offer price as recent transactions have shown that the first offer is not the last.

Looming bidding war for Pendal?

Remember the takeover tussle for Uniti Group Ltd (ASX: UWL) and Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ASX: API)?

Despite the prospect of a higher offer, the Pendal share price dropped 1.5% to $5.21 in early trade. In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gained 0.3%.

But given the 18% surge in the Pendal share price on Monday after the takeover offer was announced, the pullback won't worry shareholders.

Room for a higher takeover bid

There's no guarantee that the takeover will proceed. But UBS reckons Pendal is worth more than the $6.23 a share price that Perpetual is putting on the table.

Importantly, Perpetual's takeover offer is below UBS' 12-month price target of $7.20 a share for Pendal.

The offer also comes at a time when the Pendal share price is trading at a 38% discount (pre-bid) to its historical price-earnings multiple of 14.1 times.

"The bid appears opportunistic, noting the broader sell-off in asset managers and the widening PE gap between pure-plays (PDL 8.7x) versus diversified names (PPT 12.6x)", said the broker.

"We believe the bid undervalues PDL, with some scope for the offer to move higher and remain accretive to PPT."

Why the Pendal share price has been derated

There are a few reasons behind the underperformance of the Pendal share price that led to the takeover bid. Fund outflows and patchy investment performance are two factors. Pendal is also in the process of bedding down its US acquisition of TSW.

The acquisition won't put off Perpetual as UBS believes TSW's business is well understood by Perpetual.

Perpetual's merger with Pendal will also help the former diversify away from non-asset management businesses.

How much more can Perpetual offer for Pendal?

"With the offer valuing PDL at ~12.8x, below its long[1]term average of 14.1x we think the PDL board is unlikely to accept the current offer, but we see room for the offer price to move higher," said UBS.

"On our analysis, the deal becomes EPS neutral at a scrip ratio to 1PPT:6.5PDL implying ~$7/shr."

One also can't discount another bidder entering the arena given that M&A interest remains strong. The takeover offer for Pendal also validates UBS' view that the sector is too oversold.

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Uniti Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Mergers & Acquisitions

A man holds his head in his hands, despairing at the bad result he's reading on his computer.
Mergers & Acquisitions

Why is this ASX 200 stock crashing 15%?

What has sent investors rushing to the exits? Let's find out.

Read more »

a woman drawing image on wall of big fish about to eat a small fish
Mergers & Acquisitions

Guess which ASX All Ords stock just received a takeover offer

A private equity firm has its eyes on this stock.

Read more »

Man with rocket wings which have flames coming out of them.
Mergers & Acquisitions

Guess which ASX stock just rocketed 21% on takeover news

Investors are piling into the ASX stock following a confirmed takeover offer.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Mergers & Acquisitions

Gold Road shares surge 10% on $3.7 billion takeover offer

The ASX 200 gold stock is soaring after finding itself in the acquisition crosshairs.

Read more »

A corporate team or board stands together and looks out the window.
Technology Shares

WiseTech shares charge higher on $3.5b acquisition news

This tech stock is ending the week positively. But why?

Read more »

Two CEOs shaking hands on a deal.
Financial Shares

This ASX 300 stock is jumping on surprise merger news

This stock could be having a very big makeover.

Read more »

A graphic showing three hands holding red paddles with the word BID, indicating a bidding war for an ASX share company
Mergers & Acquisitions

Guess which ASX All Ords stock just received a new takeover offer

Let's see which stock is in the crosshairs of a rival.

Read more »

Man with rocket wings which have flames coming out of them.
Technology Shares

Guess which ASX All Ords stock is rocketing 34% on takeover deal

This stock looks set to leave the ASX boards in the near future after accepting a takeover deal.

Read more »