What's the outlook for the Lynas (ASX:LYC) share price?

It's been a mixed year on the ASX for the rare earths producer. So what might the future hold? We take a closer look.

| More on:
Man in yellow hard hat looks through binoculars as man in white hard hat stands behind him and points.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • The Lynas share price is slipping today but is well in the green over the past month 
  • Lynas is the only significant rare earths producer outside China 
  • One fund manager recommends holding Lynas due to its global strategic significance 

The Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) share price is in the red year to date but has surged more than 11% in the past month.

Lynas shares are currently swapping hands at $9.72, a 5.17% fall on yesterday's closing price. In comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is also down 0.7% today.

So what does the future look like for Lynas?

Rare earths producer

Lynas is the only major producer of separated rare earths outside of China. The company's Mt Weld mine in Western Australia is one of the highest grade rare earth deposits in the world, according to the company. Lynas also operates a rare earth processing plant in Malaysia. These materials are then exported to Asia, Europe, and the United States.

Red Leaf Securities chief executive John Athanasiou recently told my Foolish colleague Tony if the market closed tomorrow he would want to hold Lynas given its "global strategic importance".

He explained:

Rare earth materials are required for all sorts of things that we consume on a daily basis — from electric cars, mobile phones to superconductors. And the western world really wants a producer outside of China, so it enhances strategic importance. 

They announced recent record sales revenue of, I think, $202 million dollars. And that's despite supply chain [issues], which we think will be resolved fairly soon. So there's even more upside to them. So I think if you hold Lynas now, you'll be happy in four years' time.

Speaking at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney recently, Lynas CEO Amanda Lacaze said when she first joined Lynas her vision was to return to the ASX 100 and now the company is "knocking on the door of the 50".

Lacaze, asked where she sees the company in 2050, said:

We have a 25-year mine life, right? We are exploring now so we can extend that mine life because we want to increase our production. Australia as a whole, we should be able to be very successful in this area. Because we do have this wonderful mineral endowment.

I think there's a risk sometimes we think we have to compete with each other in business. There are enough competitors out there. We can all win together if we actually work in a positive fashion together.

In early March, Macquarie released a positive broker note on Lynas. The broker retained its outperform rating on the share and lifted its price target to $12.60. That suggests a potential upside of almost 30% on the current Lynas share price.

Lynas reported a record net profit after tax of $156.9 million in the company's half-year 2022 results.

Lynas share price snapshot

The Lynas share price has rocketed nearly 60% over the past year but has fallen 10% since market open on 4 January.

In comparison, the benchmark ASX index has returned about 4% in a year.

Lynas has a market capitalisation of about $9.2 billion.

The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Resources Shares

Female miner in hard hat and safety vest on laptop with mining drill in background.
Resources Shares

Why this expert says it's time to sell Lynas shares

Lynas shares have come under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks.

Read more »

Business people standing at a mine site smiling.
Resources Shares

Forget Fortescue shares and buy this miner

A leading broker expects these two mining shares to trade in opposite directions.

Read more »

A mining worker wearing a white hardhat and a high vis vest stands on a platform overlooking a huge mine, thinking about what comes next.
Dividend Investing

BHP shares have fallen out of the global top 20 dividend payers. Here's why

Global dividends continue to climb.

Read more »

Miner standing in front of a vehicle at a mine site.
Resources Shares

Is the worst now over for Mineral Resources shares?

What's next for the miner?

Read more »

A miner holding a hard hat stands in the foreground of an open cut mine
Resources Shares

A close look at BHP shares. What is the mining giant's next move?

Let's take stock of what the experts think.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Resources Shares

Short bets on Pilbara Minerals shares are declining. Is now the time to buy?

Could the trade be unwinding?

Read more »

two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.
Resources Shares

'I hate what I have done': Mineral Resources share price down as Ellison laments actions

Managing Director Chris Ellison says he deeply regrets the impact of his 'error of judgement'.

Read more »

A man in shirt and tie uses his mobile phone under water.
Resources Shares

The Lake Resources share price is sinking yet again. Here's why

The longer-term downtrend continues.

Read more »