This commodities index just saw its biggest rise in over 10 years. What might this mean for ASX 200 shares?

Commodities are staging another multi-year rally that could impact the ASX 200 basket.

| More on:
A cute little kid in a suit pulls a shocked face as he talks on his smartphone.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • ASX 200 shares have taken a beating in 2022 as global equity markets reshuffle with the macro-economic narrative
  • Commodities are staging a new multi-year rally that is seeing the segment outperform all other asset classes in 2022
  • This has direct implications for ASX 200 shares

With the recent geopolitical turmoil, spurred on by already hot-running inflation throughout global markets, commodities are now well within another supercycle.

The last we saw was roughly 10 to 15 years ago. That's when metals such as gold, iron ore and steel surged on the back of global demand and limited supply.

Fast forward to 2022, it's battery metals like lithium and copper. Whilst the macro-narrative is slightly different, the raw data is no different. Inflation is at 40-year highs, there is conflict between major global powers in Europe, we're overcoming a pandemic; alas, it's not just investors feeling the pain.

Nevertheless, commodities are front and centre once more considering the demand-supply dynamic that's vice-gripped essential energy and metals segments in 2022.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) tracks a global basket of commodities and reflects movements in 33 commodity futures contracts, per Bloomberg.

It has gained 4% overnight and is up more than 20% this year to date. That's as key weightings like oil, gold and natural gas each soar this year.

The largest weighting, the gold 100 oz future contract for 22 April settlement, comprises almost 14%, whereas oil collectively makes up over 16%, and natural gas another 8.5% (shown below).

With each of these segments – and just about every other commodity segment – entering the cycle, it's no wonder the index is one of the best-performing instruments out there in 2022.

Just take a look at Brent Crude Oil. No one thought it would reach US$100 per barrel again. Yet, here we are today with Brent above US$106.80.

TradingView Chart

What does this mean for ASX 200 shares?

Taking a high-level look, apparently not much. Whilst the commodities sector is roaring 20% higher in 2022, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has plunged 5% into the red.

In fact, 151 out of the 200 companies are in the red today. Just 42 are posting a gain at the time of writing.

But digging a little further reveals some more accurate results.

Let's zoom out and see what shares are performing well over the last 12 months, seeing as the index itself is up just 5% in that time.

Of the top 10 performers in the past year, nine are resources, mining, minerals, energy or metals companies that each have some level of direct or indirect exposure to commodities.

Looking at today's session, of the top 10 performing stocks there is only one company without exposure to commodities. All the rest do, and are firmly in the green at the time of writing.

What about the top 20 performers today?

Funnily enough, 19 out of the 20 top-performing stocks on Wednesday have exposure to commodities. The results are very similar over a 12-month timeframe as well.

So, on re-evaluation – what does this mean for ASX 200 shares? Taking a more pragmatic look, it appears it means a lot for the ASX 200 basket.

With the major performers each being companies that have some exposure to commodities, it's abundantly clear what is driving returns in 2022.

Hence, the rally that commodities are staging in 2022 appears to be weighing in significantly on ASX 200 shares and keeping things afloat.

TradingView Chart

Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

Scott just revealed what he believes could be the 'five best ASX stocks' for investors to buy right now. We believe these stocks are trading at attractive prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now...

See The 5 Stocks *Returns as of 30 April 2025

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Share Gainers

The silhouettes of ten people holding hands with their arms raised against the sky, as the sun rises or sets in the background.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

ASX shares finished the trading week on a high this Friday.

Read more »

A businessman stacks building blocks.
Technology Shares

6% gain! What's up with Block shares today?

Block shares are up more than 34% since 2 May.

Read more »

A young man punches the air in delight as he reacts to great news on his mobile phone.
Share Gainers

Why ARB, Block, Mayne Pharma, and Paladin Energy shares are charging higher today

These shares are having a strong finish to the week. But why?

Read more »

A woman puts her hands up as she smashes and breaks through a glass ceiling.
Share Gainers

How these 5 ASX 200 stocks are smashing the benchmark this week

These fives ASX 200 stocks have made some very happy shareholders this week. Here’s how.

Read more »

A man looking at his laptop and thinking.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

The markets lost their steam this Thursday.

Read more »

Ecstatic woman looking at her phone outside with her fist pumped.
Share Gainers

Why Catapult, Hutchinson, SKS, and West African shares are pushing higher today

These shares are having a strong session despite the market weakness.

Read more »

Rising gold share price represented by a green arrow on piles of gold block.
Gold

Up 72% in 2025, why is this ASX 200 gold stock racing ahead of the benchmark again today?

Investors are bidding up this high-flying ASX 200 gold stock again on Thursday. But why?

Read more »

Businessman smiles with arms outstretched after receiving good news.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

It was a wonderful Wednesday session for investors today.

Read more »