Why this top broker is 'cautious' on the outlook for CSL (ASX:CSL) shares

Here's what this broker expects from the CSL share price.

| More on:
a woman rugged up in a woolen hat and gloves with a thermometer in her mouth props her hand under her chin as she looks dejectedly at the camera,, as though she is miserable from feeling sick.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Ord Minnett has reportedly dropped its price target and kept its 'hold' rating on CSL shares
  • The decreased price target reflects concerns about CSL's plasma and flu vaccine businesses
  • Though, another major broker recently slapped CSL with a price target 14% higher than Ord Minnett's

Top broker Ord Minnett has dropped its expectations for CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) shares by 9.5% today, reportedly citing concerns about its plasma and flu divisions.

The biotechnology company's stock has tumbled 12% since the start of 2022.

At the time of writing, the CSL share price is $257.66, 1.2% higher than its previous close.

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is currently up 1.14%.

Let's take a closer look at what's undermined Ord Minnett's confidence in CSL's stock.

Broker lowers expectations of CSL stock

The top broker has dropped its price target for CSL shares from $315 to $285, maintained a "cautious view" of the company's stock, and kept its 'hold' rating, according to reporting by The Australian.

The lowered expectations are reportedly a reflection of an anticipated gross margin drop from the company's plasma division.

The broker is also said to be expecting CSL's Seqirus – creator of the company's flu vaccines – to contribute less.

In financial year 2021, Seqirus' revenue increased 30% on a constant currency basis, driven by a record number of flu jabs administered.

The Australian quoted Ord Minnett analysts as telling clients:

We have reduced our [financial year 2023 (FY23)] [earnings per share (EPS)] forecast by 4%.

We have adjusted our Vifor forecasts to reflect the expected treatment of minorities and amortisation.

After these revisions, we continue to forecast a strong uplift in earnings in FY23 as plasma volumes recover and the Vifor business starts to contribute.

In December, CSL announced its bid to acquire Swiss company Vifor Pharma for US$11.7 billion ($16.4 billion at today's exchange rate).

However, not all brokers' expectations of CSL are falling.  

As The Motley Fool Australia's James Mickleboro recently reported, Macquarie analysts have slapped CSL shares with a $325 price target.

CSL share price snapshot

The CSL share price has limped into 2022, down almost 12% year to date. However, its medium-term performance isn't much better.

It has fallen 7% since this time last year. Though long term investors rejoice — it's has gained 124% since February 2017.

Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Healthcare Shares

Female pharmacist smiles with a digital tablet.
Healthcare Shares

Are Wesfarmers or Sigma shares a better buy in the pharmacy arena?

These two stocks are both leaders in the industry.

Read more »

A young man goes over his finances and investment portfolio at home.
Healthcare Shares

Down 20%, is the NIB share price undervalued?

Here's what Goldman Sachs is saying about this blue chip stock.

Read more »

four excited doctors with their hands in the air
Healthcare Shares

Sigma Healthcare shares rocket 39% on Chemist Warehouse merger approval

The ACCC doesn't believe the company's merger with Chemist Warehouse will lessen competition.

Read more »

Doctor doing a telemedicine using laptop at a medical clinic
Healthcare Shares

ASX 200 healthcare stock rockets on $75 million news

This marks another positive step for the company.

Read more »

Male doctor in a lab coat working at laptop looking serious.
Healthcare Shares

CSL shares are in the red for 2024. Are they a buy?

Meanwhile, the broader market has extended to new highs this year.

Read more »

A smiling businessman in the city looks at his phone and punches the air in celebration of good news.
Share Market News

Guess which ASX 300 stock is jumping 11% on big news

Big news is giving this stock an even bigger lift on Tuesday. What's happening?

Read more »

Two lab workers fist pump each other.
Healthcare Shares

Guess which ASX 200 healthcare stock is starting the week with a bang on big news!

What is getting investors excited today? Let's find out.

Read more »

Doctor doing a telemedicine using laptop at a medical clinic
Healthcare Shares

3 small-cap ASX healthcare shares 'with strong prospects'

Fund manager IML discusses why these 3 ASX healthcare shares are likely to rise in value.

Read more »