Is the Bega (ASX:BGA) share price a buy after crashing 10%?

Are Bega's shares good value?

| More on:
Young woman thinking with laptop open.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA) share price was a very poor performer on Thursday.

The diversified food company's shares finished the 10% lower at $5.04.

This was an improvement on the 52-week low of $4.84 it hit during intraday trade.

Why did the Bega share price sink?

Investors were selling down the Bega share price yesterday following the release of a trading update.

Although the company revealed that it expects to deliver strong operating earnings growth in FY 2022, it was still well short of the market's expectations.

Bega has provided guidance for normalised EBITDA in the range of $195 million to $215 million. This represents a year on year increase of 37% to 51%. However, Goldman Sachs was expecting $227 million and the Bloomberg consensus estimate stood at $222 million.

Is this a buying opportunity?

Despite the sharp pullback in the Bega share price yesterday, the team at Goldman Sachs aren't in a rush to invest.

This morning the broker reiterated its neutral rating and cut its price target by 13% to $5.65.

It notes that Bega's "earnings have been impacted by a decline in milk supply and pressure on margins, caused by continued strong competition for milk amongst processors."

In light of this, Goldman has revised its earnings estimates meaningfully lower for the coming years.

It explained: "The key drivers of our revisions are: slightly lower milk intake volumes; and lower processing margins due to elevated procurement costs. We had previously expected global dairy commodity prices to offset elevated Australian farm gate milk prices. However, it has become apparent that continued strong demand from processors and retailers, combined with a decline in supply, has created a margin squeeze for BGA."

Overall, the broker doesn't see enough value in the Bega share price at the current level for a more positive rating and stays neutral.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Broker Notes

Young man with a laptop in hand watching stocks and trends on a digital chart.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's what brokers are recommending as buys this week.

Read more »

A female sharemarket analyst with red hair and wearing glasses looks at her computer screen watching share price movements.
Broker Notes

Up 34% this year, can Challenger shares keep rising according to Macquarie?

The leading broker has released a new research note.

Read more »

Two parents and two children happily eat pizza in their kitchen.
Broker Notes

Morgans reveals 4 ASX All Ords shares to buy now — and 2 may surprise you

The top broker has revealed a buy rating on four ASX All Ords shares from different market sectors.

Read more »

Five happy miners standing next to each other representing ASX coal mining shares which some brokers say could pay big dividends this year
Broker Notes

Macquarie predicts 63% upside for this ASX 200 mining stock

Which ASX 200 stock is it?

Read more »

Ecstatic woman looking at her phone outside with her fist pumped.
Broker Notes

These ASX 200 shares could rise 15% to 30%

Let's see what brokers are saying about these buy-rated top stocks.

Read more »

A female stockbroker reviews share price performance in her office with the city shown in the background through her windows
Broker Notes

JP Morgan initiates coverage of Guzman Y Gomez shares. What's its price target?

Does the broker expect Guzman Y Gomez to outperform?

Read more »

Happy man working on his laptop.
Broker Notes

Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers believe that now could be the time to snap up these shares.

Read more »

Worker on a laptop at an oil and gas pipeline.
Energy Shares

Boss Energy shares have surged 93% since April. Here's what Macquarie expects now

Boss Energy shares remain a favourite for ASX short sellers. Are they in a for a payday or headed for…

Read more »