The Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) share price is tumbling today amid new findings Australia is ditching coal 2 to 3 times faster than previously anticipated.
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) – the manager of Australia's National Electricity Market – made the claim within its 'step change' scenario.
At the time of writing, the Whitehaven share price is trading at $2.41, 3.6% lower than its previous close.
Let's take a closer look at the scenario AEMO claims is the most likely to eventuate.
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Whitehaven share price falls amid AEMO findings
The Whitehaven share price is struggling as the AEMO finds 39% of Australia's coal-fired power capacity could be dropped by 2030.
On top of that, the body predicts the utility scale of renewable energy will be increased 9-fold by 2050.
According to AEMO's 'step change' modelling, 14 gigawatts of Australia's 23-gigawatt coal capacity will be withdrawn by 2030. That's more than 8 gigawatts more than thermal plant owners had assumed.
Additionally, all brown coal generation and more than 66% of black coal generation could be scrapped by 2032.
That's 16 years earlier than AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) plans to retire its brown coal-fired Loy Yang Power Station.
However, while the Whitehaven share price is plunging, that of AGL isn't suffering at all. It's recording a 0.94% gain at the time of writing.
Last year, coal-fired power represented 54% of Australia's electricity, down 2% on 2019 levels.
Under the 'step change' scenario, Australia will meet its net-zero policy commitments while accounting for technological advances and considering government ambitions and consumer preferences.
The model also flagged the likelihood that all coal-generated electricity will be scrapped by 2043.
AEMO CEO, Daniel Westerman commented on the scenario, saying:
This transformation will efficiently deliver secure, reliable and affordable electricity while substantially contributing to national emissions objectives.
In fact, all scenarios modelled found coal-fired power used in Australia would be significantly reduced by 2030. On top of that, all found coal-fired power was set to be removed from the electricity market completely by 2050.
