With the IAG (ASX:IAG) share price trading around decade-lows, is now the time to buy?

Is it time to go shopping for IAG shares?

| More on:
A woman wearing a face mask and holding an umbrella, window shops in the rain.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) share price is being hammered by investors recently. The insurance giant is navigating its way through challenging market conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

At midday on Monday, IAG shares are swapping hands for $4.40, a drop of 0.57%. In the past month alone, IAG shares have fallen by nearly 11%, weighed down by negative investor sentiment.

What's happened with IAG shares?

There are a couple of possible catalysts as to why the IAG share price has failed to produce decent gains over the last 12 months.

In its recent trading update, the company revealed a rise in net natural perils claim costs. It blames severe storm and hail activity experienced in October, mainly across South Australia and Victoria.

As such, the insurer is estimating the net natural perils claim costs for FY22 to be around $1,045 million. This is a significant increase from the previous assumption of $765 million.

Following the $280 million setback, IAG has been forced to downgrade its FY22 insurance margin guidance range between 10% to 12%. Previously, the insurance margin level was in the 13.5% to 15.5% range.

In addition, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has commenced civil penalty proceedings in the Federal Court of Australia.

The allegations relate to IAG's failure to pass on the full discount to a large number of NRMA home, motor, caravan and boat insurance customers between March 2014 and September 2019.

It's worth noting that IAG self-reported the issue to ASIC following a review it conducted in 2019. Since then, IAG has embarked on a remediation program for the affected policyholders. More than 80% of the impacted customers have been provided refunds.

What do the brokers think?

A number of brokers have rated the company with comparable price points since IAG released its business update on 2 November.

Leading Australian investment firm Morgans cut its 12-month IAG share price target by 5% to $5.36. Following suit, Macquarie had a similar stance, reducing its rating by 5.3% to $5.40.

However, Citi had a slightly improved outlook compared to the other brokers, slashing just 2.6% to $5.60.

About the IAG share price

Looking at the last 12 months, the IAG share price is down more than 17%, with year to date hovering 6.38% below. It's worth noting, however, the company's shares have lost about 50% of their value since July 2019.

In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained around 10% from this time last year and in 2021. The benchmark index also reached a record high of 7,632.8 points in mid-August.

This shows that the ASX 200 has outperformed IAG shares. The ASX 200 historically tracks about 6% higher each year.

Based on valuation metrics, IAG has a market capitalisation of around $10.89 billion, with approximately 2.47 billion shares on issue.

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Insurance Australia Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Financial Shares

A man in his 30s with a clipped beard sits at his laptop on a desk with one finger to the side of his face and his chin resting on his thumb as he looks concerned while staring at his computer screen.
Financial Shares

Why this $29 billion ASX 200 stock is on the move today

Investors are mixed in their reponse today.

Read more »

A man and a woman sit in front of a laptop looking fascinated and captivated.
Financial Shares

Directors of this ASX 200 stock just sold $65 million of shares

Both sales were made on the same day.

Read more »

IPO written in dark blue with a yellow background.
Financial Shares

ASX fintech stock backed by Mastercard slumps 9% on debut

Meet the ASX's newest fintech company.

Read more »

Man smiling at a laptop because of a rising share price.
Financial Shares

How the US election results are 'fundamentally positive' for Macquarie shares in 2025

This expert says 2025 could be another strong year for Macquarie shares. But why?

Read more »

A woman sits on a chair smiling as she shops online.
Financial Shares

Zip or Block shares: Which is the more profitable company?

We've crunched the numbers.

Read more »

A man holds his head as he looks at his laptop and contemplates more bills to pay.
Financial Shares

Down 19%! Is the GQG share price selloff an overreaction and buying opportunity?

Is now the time to pounce on this beaten down stock? Let's see what Goldman Sachs is saying.

Read more »

A woman sits at her computer with her chin resting on her hand as she contemplates her next potential investment.
Financial Shares

IAG share price reaches new 5-year high! What next?

It’s been a great period for the insurance giant. Could it keep rising?

Read more »

Shot of a young businesswoman looking stressed out while working in an office.
Financial Shares

This $7 billion ASX 200 stock just crashed 11%. What's going on?

There's trouble in India and it's weighing on this stock today.

Read more »