Why did the Zip (ASX:Z1P) share price have such a lousy month in October?

We investigate why this ASX BNPL share had a challenging October.

| More on:
a boy with sad eyes pulls the zip over his mouth and nose while doing up a large jacket where the collar stands up at head height.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

As it turns out, not too many ASX shares enjoyed a great month over October. The broad S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) went backwards by around 0.1%, with ASX resources and banking shares dragging on the ASX 200.

One ASX 200 share that was particularly disappointing for investors was the Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P) share price.

Zip shares certainly had a month to forget. This buy now, pay later (BNPL) company started October at a price of $7.06 a share. But it ended up finishing the month at just $6.50 last Friday. That's a slide of 7.93%. Ouch.

So, what went so wrong for Zip over October?

Zip share price falls despite record quarterly update

Well, the centrepiece of Zip's month was the first quarter update the company posted on 18 October. In this update, Zip told the markets that it managed to bring in a record quarterly revenue of $126.8 million, up 89% year on year. Its quarterly transaction volume also broke records, coming in at $1.9 billion, up 101% year on year.

The company now has a customer base of 8 million, up 82%. While the number of merchants using its platform also continues to skyrocket, hitting 55,200 over the quarter, up 71%.

Despite an initial share price pop of roughly 5% when this update was released, investor sentiment cooled off very quickly in the days that followed. By Wednesday last week, the Zip share price was back below where it was on the day before this quarterly update was released.

Brokers and short sellers send some tough love for BNPL

This may have been spurred by some negative broker coverage of Zip that week. As my Fool colleague James covered last Tuesday, broker UBS evidently wasn't impressed with Zip's update. UBS has retained a 'sell' rating on Zip with a 12-month share price target of $5.40. That implies a potential 12-month downside of close to 15% on today's pricing.

UBS pointed out that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is planning on removing the 'no surcharge rule' for BNPL products. The broker reckons this is an "incremental negative" for Zip Co.

As we covered last month, the RBA has indeed changed its tune on the no surcharge rule. This prevent retailers from directly passing on the higher transaction costs of BNPL payment methods to consumers.

The RBA now won't stand in the way of merchants wanting to apply a surcharge to BNPL transactions if they so wish. This, the RBA believes, will "promote competition and efficiency in the Australian payments system".

Investors remain sceptical about the Zip share price. As the Fool covered last week, Zip shares remain in the top 10 most shorted ASX shares on the market.

All of these factors may have assisted in making Zip's October one to forget. Investors in this BNPL company will no doubt be hoping for a better November.

At the current Zip share price of $6.29, the company has a market capitalisation of $3.6 billion.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and has recommended ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on BNPL shares

A businessman stacks building blocks.
BNPL shares

The ASX 200 stock with 'a strong outlook for 2025'

Racing ahead of the benchmark this year, the ASX 200 stock could keep outperforming in 2025.

Read more »

A wide-eyed man peers out from a small gap in his black zipped jumper conveying fear over the weak Zip share price
BNPL shares

Why did the Zip share price just crash 9%?

Investors seem to be singling Zip out for punishment today...

Read more »

A cool dude looks back at the camera while ziplining above the treetops.
BNPL shares

Up 44% in 2024, can the Zip share price rocket again in 2025?

Will 2025 be a great year for the buy now, pay later stock?

Read more »

A cool dude looks back at the camera while ziplining above the treetops.
BNPL shares

Down 15% in a week, should you buy the dip on Zip shares?

Are Zip shares a good buy after the past week’s 15% fall?

Read more »

A young woman smiles as she rides a zip line high above the trees.
Share Gainers

Up 748% in a year, why a 'long growth runway remains' for Zip shares

Up 748% in a year, these top fund managers remain bullish on the outlook for Zip shares in 2025.

Read more »

Modern accountant woman in a light business suit in modern green office with documents and laptop.
BNPL shares

Co-founder sells $100 million of Zip shares after stepping down

A cool payday.

Read more »

A man looking at his laptop and thinking.
BNPL shares

Zip share price sinks on big co-founder news

Some investors are saying bye now, see you later to Zip shares.

Read more »

A young man punches the air in delight as he reacts to great news on his mobile phone.
BNPL shares

Why did the Zip share price smash the market again in November?

This high-flying stock made its shareholders smile again last month.

Read more »