How China's energy crisis could be good for BHP (ASX:BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO)

The iron ore price found its feet recently and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) …

| More on:
China power crisis BHP Rio Tinto Man holding up wires after getting electric shock

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The iron ore price found its feet recently and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) shareholders may have China's energy crisis to thank for this.

In case you forgot, the price of the steel making mineral plunged by more than half.

The commodity hit a record high over US$200 a tonne in May 2021 before bouncing last week. It's currently trading at around US$100/t.

Power blackouts a boon for BHP and Rio Tinto

It's not easy to nail down what prompted bargain hunters to jump in to support the price. But Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) suspects its mainly to do with the rolling power blackouts that's gripping parts of China.

The Chinese government is ordering industries and households to ration the use of electricity. This has impacted on electric arc furnace (EAF) operators more than traditional steel mills.

"Macquarie Commodity Strategy Team believes lower EAF operation could also be behind the iron ore price rebound late last week," said Macquarie.

"As current production curtailment has shifted from emission reduction driven to power supply shortage driven, EAF mills have seen a clear drop in their operating rate over past two weeks, helping demand for integrated mills that use iron ore."

Iron ore price stabilises at expense of EAF operators

EAF is a greener way of producing steel but it requires more power. The process uses scrap steel and direct reduced iron as raw material.

As output from EAF facilities are cut due to China's electricity shortage, iron ore hungry steel mills are having to step up.

BHP and Rio Tinto share prices getting lift from China's misstep

If so, this is a double-own-goal by the Chinese government and the irony shouldn't be lost on ASX investors.

The crash in the iron ore price was in no small part triggered by the Communist Party's policy decisions.

Officially, it wanted to drastically cut pollution ahead of the Winter Olympics and ordering steel mills to curtain production was an easy way to achieve this.

Unofficially, they seething that Australia was benefiting from record iron ore prices.

Market manipulation malfunction

But what significantly contributed to China's power crisis was its decision to ban Australian coal imports.

Its aging infrastructure combined with a shortage of coal in that country have been blamed for China's current predicament.

China's addiction hard to break

To rub salt to the Chinese wound, iron ore exports from ASX iron ore producers, including Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG), have increased lately.

"The combined shipping rate for RIO, BHP and FMG in September to date has increased above the 800mtpa mark, at 847mtpa," added Macquarie.

"By contrast, Vale shipments slowed by 12% to 6.2mt."

Despite strong political will, China and Australia may not be able to sever economic ties as easily as they would like.

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of BHP Billiton Limited, Fortescue Metals Group Limited, and Rio Tinto Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Resources Shares

An engineer takes a break on a staircase and looks out over a huge open pit coal mine as the sun rises in the background.
Resources Shares

4 reasons to buy BHP shares today

A leading expert outlines four key reasons BHP shares are a buy.

Read more »

Businessman walks through exit door signalling resignation
Resources Shares

Pilbara Minerals share price drops as CFO announces resignation

It’s been a challenging few years for outgoing Pilbara Minerals CFO Luke Bortoli.

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Resources Shares

What happened with the BHP share price in May?

Did you buy BHP shares in May? Here’s how much the ASX 200 miner returned.

Read more »

Two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen at a mine site.
Resources Shares

Should I buy Fortescue shares today?

A leading investing expert offers his verdict on the outlook for Fortescue shares.

Read more »

A female miner wearing a high vis vest and hard hard smiles and holds a clipboard while inspecting a mine site with a colleague.
Resources Shares

Is this a good time to buy BHP shares?

Should investors jump on the ASX mining shares right now?

Read more »

a miner holds his thumb up as he holds a device in his other hand.
Broker Notes

Why Macquarie expects this ASX 200 copper stock to surge 36% in a year

Macquarie forecasts some hefty gains ahead for the ASX 200 copper miner. But why?

Read more »

A young African mine worker is standing with a smile in front of a large haul dump truck wearing his personal protective wear.
Resources Shares

Following its FY25 result, Macquarie tips more than 40% upside for this ASX All Ords mining stock

Let’s dig into why this is such an exciting stock.

Read more »

Female miner smiling at a mine site.
Resources Shares

Macquarie forecasts 30% upside for this ASX All Ords mining stock

If a broker is right, investors have a lot to gain with this stock.

Read more »