Here's why the Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) share price is down 20% in 3 months

This mining giant's shares have fallen sharply over the last three months…

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

It certainly hasn't been a good three months for the Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price.

During this time, the mining giant's shares have lost 20% of their value.

This means Rio Tinto's shares have now given back all their year to date gains and some more.

Upset man in hard hat puts hand over face after Armada Metals share price sinks

Image source: Getty Images

Why is the Rio Tinto share price sinking?

Investors have been selling down the Rio Tinto share price over the last three months due to significant weakness in the iron ore price.

For example, last week the spot benchmark iron ore price dropped below US$100 a tonne before rebounding to close the week at US$111.33 a tonne.

This compares very unfavourably to the price the steel making ingredient was commanding in May. At that point, the spot price was up as high as US$230 a tonne.

While nobody thought that iron ore's bull run was sustainable and declines were expected, few were expecting such a swift and sharp pullback.

This has led to material revisions to earnings and dividend forecasts by analysts for the mining giant, which has ultimately weighed on broker valuations for the Rio Tinto share price.

Is this a buying opportunity?

According to a recent note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts see a lot of value in Rio Tinto's shares now.

The broker currently has a buy rating and $147.50 price target on its shares. Which, based on the current Rio Tinto share price, implies potential upside of 48% over the next 12 months.

In addition, Goldman is forecasting some huge dividends from the miner in the near term. It currently expects fully franked yields of ~16% in FY 2022, ~17% in FY 2022, and ~15% in FY 2023.

This is based on the broker's average iron ore price forecasts (from 19 September) of US$189 a tonne in 2021, US$160 a tonne in 2022, and US$120 a tonne in 2023.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Share Fallers

A young couple stands next to a real estate agent in an empty apartment they are inspecting.
Real Estate Shares

Mirvac shares sink to their lowest level since 2015. Is this ASX property giant back on the radar?

Multi-year lows put Mirvac shares back on investors’ watchlists today.

Read more »

A man sits in despair at his computer with his hands either side of his head, staring into the screen with a pained and anguished look on his face, in a home office setting.
Share Fallers

Why Orora, Select Harvests, Tamboran, and WiseTech shares are sinking today

These shares are under pressure on Thursday. What's going on?

Read more »

A boy with sad eyes pulls the zip over his mouth and nose while doing up a large jacket where the collar stands up at head height.
BNPL shares

Zip shares plunge again after yesterday's 19% surge. Here's what changed

Zip shares tumble as ceasefire hopes fade and volatility returns.

Read more »

a group of business people sit dejectedly around a table, each expressing desolation, sadness and disappointment by holding their head in their hands, casting their gazes down and looking very glum.
Share Fallers

DroneShield shares tumble 17% as CEO exit revives leadership fears

Investors bank gains as DroneShield leadership reset unsettles sentiment...

Read more »

A young man clasps his hand to his head with a pained expression on his face and a laptop in front of him.
Share Fallers

Why Challenger, Lotus Resources, Mesoblast, and Wildcat shares are falling today

These shares are starting the week in the red. But why?

Read more »

Frustrated stock trader screaming while looking at mobile phone, symbolising a falling share price.
Share Fallers

Why KMD, Tamboran Resources, Whitehaven Coal, and WiseTech Global shares are falling today

These shares are out of form on Thursday. What's going on?

Read more »

Frustrated stock trader screaming while looking at mobile phone, symbolising a falling share price.
Share Fallers

Why Dateline, Karoon Energy, Lindian, and PEXA shares are falling today

These shares are missing out on the good times on Wednesday. But why?

Read more »

A man slumps crankily over his morning coffee as it pours with rain outside.
Share Fallers

These were the worst-performing ASX 200 shares in March

These shares were out of form in March. Let's see why investors sold them off.

Read more »