The Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN) share price has taken its investors on a rollercoaster ride ever since the topic of cycling elevated sales and inventory issues began to emerge late last year.
Kogan shares have tumbled in each and every single one of its updates this year, in addition to sharp declines during its half-year and full year FY21 results announcements.
In an article featured on Livewire, Chris Stott from 1851 Capital and James Gerrish from Market Matters take a look as to whether or not the Kogan share price is a buy, hold or sell.
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What do experts think about the Kogan share price?
Stott reiterated his view to sell Kogan shares.
"Sell again. We think they've still got inventory issues that will remain for a little while longer, perhaps longer than what people are expecting."
"They're cycling higher comps, benefiting at the moment from being locked down, but as soon as the economy reopens, their comps should normalise back down. So sell," he said.
The concept of cycling higher comparables has been a drag on more than just the Kogan share price this reporting season.
Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) for example, flagged in its FY21 results announcement that "Bunnings, Officeworks and Catch experienced moderating sales growth from mid-March as they began to cycle the strong demand experienced in the prior year."
The idea that growth could be flat to negative in the short term has spooked many investors and placed downward pressure on both Wesfarmers and other retail players.
Gerrish on the other hand chose to give the Kogan share price a second chance.
"I think it's a buy, Matt, at around $11. Obviously, they stuffed up in FY21. There's no doubt about it."
"They got too bullish on the demand for their products. And when you have a heap of inventory, it's hard to store it, it costs money and they've obviously had to try and move it through sales. So I think that's a lesson for them. And I think going out into '22, that aggressive stance towards growth will eventually pay dividends. So it's a buy at these levels, at around $11," he said.
