This leading broker tips Fortescue Metals (ASX:FMG) share price to rise by 42%

Fortescue shares have dipped into the red on Thursday, but one broker predicts there are better things to come

| More on:
One businessman holds crystal ball while him and five others gather round to look into the future

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price is wobbling today.

It jumped out of the starting blocks from the opening of trade to climb 0.44% to $20.42. However, at the time of writing, Fortescue shares are exchanging hands at $20.22 apiece, a 0.54% fall from yesterday's closing price.

What's been behind the Fortescue Metals share price lately?

Shares in Australia's largest iron ore producer have been on the down lately due to a pullback in iron ore prices.

For instance, the spot iron ore price fell by 3.3% overnight on Tuesday, which resulted in broad weakness across the iron ore miners' basket on the ASX.

Fortescue also reported a 74% year-on-year increase in revenue and grew net profit after tax (NPAT) by 115% to $10.3 billion in its FY21 results.

The company's growth engine is backed by an uptick in global iron ore production that is forecast over the coming years.

Despite these points, the Fortescue Metals share price is down 18% over the last month, to coincide with weakening iron ore markets.

What are brokers saying?

One leading broker, JP Morgan, has reiterated its overweight rating on Fortescue shares, and believes there is still further gains imminent.

As such it has assigned a $29 per share price target for the Fortescue Metals share price. This implies an upside potential of approximately 42% from the current trading price.

Conversely, peer investment bank Goldman Sachs has a sell rating on Fortescue shares, with a $19.90 price target.

What did JP Morgan say about the Fortescue Metals share price?

JP Morgan believes the company "offers exposure to long life operations, with attractive margins and expansion optionality over the long term".

Regarding the company's FY21 results, the broker said "the earnings result and dividend were in line with JP Morgan and consensus. Earnings remained clean and predictable, with a strong EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation] margin of 73%, and enviable balance sheet position of $2.7 billion net cash".

Regarding potential risks to the Fortescue Metals share price, its analysts added: "One of the key overhangs on the stock has been the announcement of a $500-$600 million spend on FFI (Fortescue Future Industries) in FY22. Unfortunately there is still a lack of detail on the breakdown. We have already captured the outflow in our model. However, it remains unclear how to generate a positive valuation on FFI at this stage. There is also no detail on the sequencing of projects on a multiyear look-ahead."

Bringing it all together, JP Morgan's overweight rating indicates it feels this could be a buying opportunity for investors.

Fortescue Metals share price snapshot

The Fortescue Metals share price has had a choppy year to date, posting a loss of around 13% since January 1. Despite this, Fortescue shares have climbed 12% into the green over the last year.

These results have lagged the S&P/ASX 200 index (ASX: XJO)'s return of around 25% over the past year.

The author Zach Bristow has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Share Fallers

Three guys in shirts and ties give the thumbs down.
Share Fallers

Why AGL, Beach Energy, Bravura, and CBA shares are dropping today

These shares are having a tough time on hump day. But why?

Read more »

Bored man sitting at his desk with his laptop.
Share Fallers

Why Liontown, Mineral Resources, Northern Star, and SGH shares are tumbling today

These shares are under pressure on Tuesday. But why?

Read more »

a man weraing a suit sits nervously at his laptop computer biting into his clenched hand with nerves, and perhaps fear.
Share Fallers

Why AMP, Iress, JB Hi-Fi, and Santana Minerals shares are falling today

These shares are starting the week in the red. But why?

Read more »

Person with thumbs down and a red sad face poster covering the face.
Share Fallers

Why Clarity Pharmaceuticals, GQG Partners, Light & Wonder, and QBE shares are dropping today

These shares are ending the week in the red. But why?

Read more »

Shot of a young scientist looking stressed out while working on a computer in a lab.
Healthcare Shares

Guess which ASX All Ords stock just crashed 23% on earnings miss

Investors are sending the ASX All Ords stock tumbling on Friday. But why?

Read more »

Frustrated stock trader screaming while looking at mobile phone, symbolising a falling share price.
Share Fallers

Why ASX, Light & Wonder, News Corp, and Silex shares are dropping today

These shares are falling harder than most on Thursday. But why?

Read more »

A young man clasps his hand to his head with a pained expression on his face and a laptop computer in front of him.
Share Fallers

Why Articore, Aurizon, Light & Wonder, and Syrah shares are falling today

These shares are having a tough time on hump day. But why?

Read more »

Frustrated stock trader screaming while looking at mobile phone, symbolising a falling share price.
Share Fallers

Why Endeavour, Platinum Capital, Telix, and TPG shares are falling today

These shares are missing out on the good times today. But why?

Read more »