Why climate risks is a bigger threat to ASX 200 shares than you thought

Everyone may be aware of the climate emergency, but many are underestimating its impact on their investment returns.

| More on:
Climate change ASX 200 shares the word crisis attached to a pointing down red arrow

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Investors are alive to the risk climate change is posing to the economy, but many are probably underestimating its impact on their S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) share portfolio.

I am not just talking about the obvious, like how floods and wild fires are hurting insurance shares.

There are two tectonic changes that are happening underfoot that haven't yet fully grabbed investors' attention.

How ASX 200 shares can be climate change losers

The first is the big shift in institutional fund flows. Australia's second largest super fund, Aware Super, will dump ASX shares that don't act on climate change, reported the Australian Financial Review.

Given it has nearly $150 billion in funds under management, such a move can devastate any ASX large cap.

This is especially so as other large institutional investors are probably doing the same or are thinking about it.

No matter how popular a ASX 200 share is, it cannot sustain longer-term outperformance without attracting fund managers.

Climate to change global financial systems

The second issue stems from potential government budget blowouts to deal with climate change. This market hazard is nicely explained in an AFR opinion piece by Chris Dickman from Altius Asset Management.

He warns of a period of twin deficits. The amount of government debt has ballooned due to the COVID-19 nightmare. But climate change is the second deficit as government's who do not do enough to address the risks risk being cut off from international financiers.

Sovereign debt blowout

This is perhaps a veiled barb at Australia. If we followed that argument to its natural conclusion, the cost for our government to borrow will rise materially while our dollar will slump. No one is predicting hyperinflation or stagflation for our economy, but the risks are there.

At least many ASX 200 shares are acting, such as our mining giants like the Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price or BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price. They should be applauded but there is a big element of self-preservation behind that decision.

An ASX 200 share that is already being left behind

If you want a current example of what happens when a ASX 200 company doesn't have a credible plan, look at the Aurizon Holdings Ltd (ASX: AZJ) share price.

The rail operator should be a hot share to buy in this climate. It is trading on a yield of around 10% (including its 70% franking credit) and analysts think this is sustainable in FY22, if not beyond.

Further, it owns infrastructure assets – something that investors crave. The takeover bids for Sydney Airport Holdings Pty Ltd (ASX: SYD) and Spark Infrastructure Group (ASX: SKI) says it all!

Ripe for reform

But most brokers are not recommending the Aurizon share price as a buy because of its over reliance on coal haulage. This is one big reason why its share price is lagging the market.

This isn't so bad if management can explain how it can reduce its exposure to the fossil fuel and grow (or at least maintain) earnings.

Until that day comes, Aurizon will probably be sidelined by most investors despite its tantalizing yield.

Having said that, I won't be surprised if investment bankers are lining up to sell a restructure proposal of sorts to its board.

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of Aurizon Holdings Limited, BHP Billiton Limited, and Fortescue Metals Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Aurizon Holdings Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Share Market News

Ten happy friends leaping in the air outdoors.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Investors started the week off in a good mood today.

Read more »

A cute young girl with curly hair sips a glass of milk through a straw with a smile on her face.
Broker Notes

Up 37% this year, why Macquarie expects A2 Milk shares to keep outperforming

Macquarie remains bullish on A2 Milk shares heading into 2026. Let’s see why.

Read more »

Woman and man calculating a dividend yield.
Share Market News

Big week for markets: Here's what to watch

Tech earnings, rate speculation, and Aussie inflation data could shake markets this week — but long-term investors should keep their…

Read more »

ASX shares Business man marking buy on board and underlining it
Broker Notes

Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers believe that now could be the time to snap up these shares.

Read more »

dissapointed man at falling share price
Share Fallers

Why Boss Energy, Elsight, Pilbara Minerals, and Whitehaven Coal shares are falling today

These shares are starting the week in the red. But why?

Read more »

An older female ASX investor holds a gangster-style fist pump pose showing off gold rings with dollar signs on them.
Broker Notes

Why Macquarie forecasts Northern Star shares are set to surge 55%

Macquarie believes Northern Star shares are well-placed to rocket higher.

Read more »

A group of people gathered around a laptop computer with various expressions of interest, concern and surprise on their faces. All are wearing glasses.
Share Market News

ASX 200 tech stock near record high, is it still a buy?

This company's soaring share price and rising profits are turning heads.

Read more »

Excited couple celebrating success while looking at smartphone.
Share Gainers

Why Bellevue Gold, Bubs, Clarity Pharmaceuticals, and Regal Partners shares are rising today

These shares are starting the week on a positive note.

Read more »