How do you value the NAB (ASX:NAB) share price?

How do you know if NAB shares are still good value?

| More on:
parents putting money in piggy bank for kids future

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

With the National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) share price up 54% over the last 12 months, investors may be wondering if its shares still good value. But how do you value a bank share?

How do you value the NAB share price?

When it comes to valuing shares, the traditional price to earnings ratio is often used. This ratio is the result of dividing a company's share price by its earnings per share.

However, analysts don't tend to use this method for banks. There are a number of reasons for this, with one being the fact that a bank's earnings ignore the significant value sitting on its balance sheet.

Instead, analysts may prefer to use a price to book ratio when analysing bank shares. Similar to the price to earnings ratio, this ratio divides the company's share price by the book value per share. The lower the ratio compared to its peers the better.

But even that is too simplistic for many analysts.

How else can you value its shares?

Fortunately, the team at Goldman Sachs have just valued the NAB share price and revealed their methods.

Goldman Sachs has a conviction buy rating and $30.34 price target on NAB's shares at present. This is based on a 50:50 blend of its discounted cash flow and return on equity versus price to net tangible assets (NTA) valuation. This is far more complex than the above methods, but I will try and take you through it now.

Equity value per share:

  • Goldman estimates NAB's future cash flows at $70,031 million based on a 10.7% discount rate.
  • Estimated value of future franking credits $15,282 million.
  • Total equity value $85,313 million.
  • 3,201 million shares.
  • Equity value per share of $26.66.

This is then blended evenly with its NTA estimates versus its sustainable return on tangible equity estimate (ROTE) of $34.01 to give us a final valuation of $30.34.

The good news is that this compares favourably to the current NAB share price of $26.34. This implies potential upside of 15.2% over the next 12 months before dividends.

Foolish Takeaway

While Goldman's valuation model will go over the heads of many readers, the key takeaway is that it demonstrates why a price to earnings ratio can be too simple if you want to effectively value the NAB share price.

Should you invest $1,000 in Lynas Rare Earths Ltd right now?

Before you buy Lynas Rare Earths Ltd shares, consider this:

Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now... and Lynas Rare Earths Ltd wasn't one of them.

The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys...

See The 5 Stocks *Returns as of 30 April 2025

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Bank Shares

A young male ASX investor raises his clenched fists in excitement because of rising ASX share prices today
Bank Shares

Why did CBA shares jump over 10% in April?

It was a great month for owners of this banking giant's shares.

Read more »

Happy young woman saving money in a piggy bank.
Bank Shares

Which big 4 ASX bank share does Macquarie currently prefer?

Here’s why Macquarie likes this bank the most.

Read more »

Bank building with word Bank on it.
Bank Shares

ASX bank shares outperformed in April. Will this continue according to Macquarie?

What drove the strong performance by banks in April?

Read more »

a couple and their baby sit together at their computer carrying out digital transactions and smiling happily.
Bank Shares

3 things about BOQ stock every smart investor knows

This smaller bank has aspirations to become a larger competitor.

Read more »

Man raising both his arms in the air with a piggy bank on his lap, symbolising a record high.
Bank Shares

CBA shares reach new all time high after 4% surge

CBA shares have done it again.

Read more »

Bank building in a financial district.
Bank Shares

Would I buy ANZ shares right now?

Would the bank be a good investment right now?

Read more »

Worried woman calculating domestic bills.
Bank Shares

Which 2 big ASX bank shares will be most impacted by RBA rate cuts according to Macquarie?

Which banks could see the most pain from RBA rate cuts?

Read more »

A man sits thoughtfully on the couch with a laptop on his lap.
Earnings Results

Bank of Queensland share price lifts off on soaring profits and boosted dividend

ASX investors are piling into Bank of Queensland shares on Wednesday. Here’s why.

Read more »