CBA (ASX:CBA) share price closes lower as bank warns of shrinking GDP

Australia's rolling lockdowns are keeping the virus largely at bay, but the economic costs are mounting.

| More on:
A baby lying on a pile of one hundred dollar notes

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price closed the day down 1.4%, to $99.30 per share.

Today's loss sent CBA shares back below the psychological $100 mark, which they'd once again breached just yesterday.

CBA made headline news today after it announced major changes to its regional branch operations.

CommBank also sounded the alarm in a note released this morning, warning of the hit Australia's economy is likely to get from the extended COVID-19 lockdown measures in the Greater Sydney area.

CBA sounds alarm on economic slowdown

According to CBA researchers, New South Wales extended lockdowns will result in some 300,000 job losses in the coming months.

"A deep contraction in GDP over third quarter of 2021 is now a fait accompli. It is the inevitable consequence of shutting down large parts of the economy," CBA's head of economics Gareth Aird said (quoted by the Sydney Morning Herald).

CommBank now expects the unemployment rate will top out at 5.6% in October.

Aird also expects the federal government will be rebooting its stimulus efforts:

Substantial policy support will once again be needed to ensure that the economic rebound is swift when restrictions are eased… The recently announced fiscal support is significant, but we suspect that policymakers will once again err on the side of doing too much rather than not enough and further stimulus is likely.

New South Wales remains at the epicentre of Australia's new COVID wave. While South Australia and Victoria have tentatively eased their respective lockdowns, NSW reported 177 new cases over a 24-hour period.

With lockdowns in the state now extended for at least 4 weeks, Aird forecasts economic demand in NSW will shrink by 9% in Q3 while GDP will fall by 2.7%. He expects the rest of Australia will grow modestly during the quarter, while NSW, the most populous state, contracts.

CommBank share price snapshot

Despite today's move lower, the CBA share price remains up by around 38% over the past 12 months, compared to a 23% gain posted by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

CBA shares hit all-time highs on 17 June, closing at $105.91 per share. Since the record high, shares are down 6.2%.

The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Bank Shares

A young bank customer wearing a yellow jumper smiles as she checks her bank balance on her phone.
Bank Shares

$5,000 invested in CBA shares at the start of 2023 is now worth…

CBA's smashing returns might surprise you...

Read more »

A man in a suit smiles at the yellow piggy bank he holds in his hand.
Share Market News

Looking outside the big four? What's in store for the other ASX bank shares in 2025?

Shares in the big four banks went gangbusters in 2024, but what about the others?

Read more »

Businessman smiles with arms outstretched after receiving good news.
Bank Shares

Guess which ASX 200 bank stock delivered double CBA's share price gains in 2024?

Hint: It's wasn't a big four bank...

Read more »

A man in a business suit whose face isn't shown hands over two australian hundred dollar notes from a pile of notes in his other hand to an outstretched hand of another person.
Bank Shares

Is it time to cash in some profit on ASX 200 bank shares?

The S&P/ASX 200 Banks Index surged almost 30% compared to a 7.5% lift for the broader ASX 200 last year.

Read more »

Nervous customer in discussions at a bank.
Share Market News

Are CBA shares a great buy for dividends in 2025?

Can investors bank on big dividends this year?

Read more »

Middle age caucasian man smiling confident drinking coffee at home.
Bank Shares

Was it a good idea to own Westpac shares in 2024?

Were the bank's shareholders smiling at the end of last year? Let's find out.

Read more »

Woman using a pen on a digital stock market chart in an office.
Bank Shares

Insider buys $215k of Westpac shares. Should you invest?

Do analysts think you should buy shares in this big four bank like one of its insiders? Let's find out.

Read more »

View from below of a banker jumping for joy in the CBD surrounded by high-rise office buildings.
Bank Shares

Did ANZ shares beat the ASX 200 in 2024?

Was it better to own the index or ANZ shares last year?

Read more »