Why Moderna shares surged 27% in June

Growing concern over the emerging delta variant and more long-term supply agreements boosted the stock last month.

| More on:
woman preparing Moderna vaccine

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

What happened

Shares of Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) rose 27% in June, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Known for its highly effective COVID-19 mRNA vaccine, Moderna rose in tandem with the spread of the concerning delta variant across the world in June. The company also announced studies showing its vaccine was highly effective against that variant and others, and it locked up more supply agreements with the U.S. and other countries.

So what

Early in the month, Moderna secured a long-term supply agreement with UNICEF to sell the organization 34 million doses in the fourth quarter of 2021, along with up to 466 million doses in 2022. That was followed up by a purchase of 200 million doses, securing supply into the first quarter 2022, and then another 150 million doses purchased by the European Union, bringing its order commitment total to 460 million, including boosters for new variants in 2022. The new purchase orders by major countries coincided with Moderna's release of clinical data showing its COVID vaccine as protective against six of the newer variants, including the delta variant causing so much concern. Rival Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ) vaccine has only shown to be about 60% effective against the delta variant, a lower rate than two-dose vaccines like Moderna's.

Now what

Even after its June run, Moderna's stock trades at a bargain valuation of less than 10 times next year's earnings estimates. That's because investors see the company's huge COVID windfall as a one-time occurrence, and that those earnings will decline in 2023 and beyond. But with the delta variant causing worries -- and with Moderna's vaccine perhaps providing superior protection versus the one-dose Johnson & Johnson -- investors now might be forecasting a longer life for Moderna's COVID franchise than it had previously. Moderna also still isn't given much credit for its fairly large pipeline of other mRNA indications, since mRNA is only a newly commercialized technology. So despite the stock's monster run over the past year, any new COVID variants or new mRNA indications from its pipeline could extend the rally even further.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Billy Duberstein has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Johnson & Johnson and Moderna Inc. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on International Stock News

A woman holds a soldering tool as she sits in front of a computer screen while working on the manufacturing of technology equipment in a laboratory environment.
International Stock News

Nvidia share price slips despite 94% revenue growth

Q3 earnings beat expectations, but what about guidance?

Read more »

high, climbing, record high
International Stock News

Could the S&P 500 Index hit 6,500 by the end of 2025?

Could the index climb higher?

Read more »

a small child holds his chin with his head on the side in a serious thinking pose against a background of graphic question marks and a yellow lightbulb.
International Stock News

Is it too late to buy Nvidia shares?

Is Nvidia stock a buy ahead of its third-quarter earnings report tomorrow?

Read more »

a group of people stand examining a large glowing cystral ball held in the hands of one of the group members while the others regard it with various expressions of wonder, curiousity and scepticism.
International Stock News

Here's what to expect from Nvidia on November 20

Can Nvidia score another win?

Read more »

Two people lazing in deck chairs on a beautiful sandy beach through their hands up in the air.
International Stock News

2 no-brainer Warren Buffett stocks to buy right now

While replicating Buffett's success isn't possible, there are a handful of his investments that are no-brainer buys.

Read more »

A man with a beard and wearing dark sunglasses and a beanie head covering raises a fist in happy celebration as he sits at is computer in a home environment.
International Stock News

3 reasons to buy Nvidia stock before November 20

This week marks a big moment for tech investors as perhaps the most anticipated earnings of the year will be…

Read more »

A woman smiles over her shoulder as she sits in the driver's seat of a car with keys in hand.
International Stock News

Why Tesla stock just popped

Tesla stock raced ahead Monday after Bloomberg reported the incoming Trump administration's intentions around self-driving vehicles.

Read more »

A woman holds her hand out under a graphic hologram image of a human brain with brightly lit segments and section points.
International Stock News

Prediction: Nvidia stock is going to soar after November 20

Nvidia is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on Wednesday.

Read more »