Why this broker thinks the BHP (ASX:BHP) share price can storm higher

Looking for exposure to the resources sector? Check out what this broker thinks of BHP….

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price continued its positive run on Wednesday.

The mining giant's shares rose 1% to close the day at $48.57.

This latest gain means the BHP share price is now up 13% since the start of the year.

happy mining worker fortescue share price

Image source: Getty Images

Can the BHP share price climb even higher?

The good news is that it may not be too late to invest according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

This morning the broker retained its buy rating and $53.80 price target on the company's shares. Based on the current BHP share price, this implies potential upside of ~11% over the next 12 months.

And if you include dividends (Goldman is forecasting US$2.52 per share in FY 2021 and US$2.58 per share in FY 2022), the potential total return stretches to approximately 18%.

Why is Goldman positive on BHP?

There are three key reasons that Goldman Sachs is bullish on the mining giant. The first is the strong free cash flow the company is currently generating thanks to favourable commodity prices.

It explained: "Strong earnings growth and FCF: We forecast a c. 50% increase in EBITDA and a doubling of FCF in FY21 (equating to c. 10-11% FCF yield), driven by our positive view on met coal, copper and oil prices."

Another reason it feels the BHP share price is good value is the company's growth prospects.

Goldman said: "Strong production growth: BHP's group Cu Eq production should increase by 4-5% in FY22 and 6-7% in FY23, driven by a +250-270kt lift in copper volumes from Spence and Escondida, +10MMboe of oil volumes with new production from Mad Dog II/Atlantis Phase 3/Shenzi. BHP will likely also see a significant margin and FCF kicker in the Pilbara from the high grade South Flank deposit. Longer term, we see possible 50% volume growth to +150MMboe driven by Trion, Calypso (formerly T&T North), Shenzi North (formerly Wildling), and Scarborough."

The final reason for the broker's positive view is its ongoing portfolio optimisation, which it appears to believe will create value for shareholders.

It concluded: "Potential benefits from ongoing portfolio optimisation: Ongoing with the announcement to divest thermal and weak coking coal, and Bass Strait gas."

Overall, this could make BHP worth considering if you're looking for exposure to the resources sector.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Resources Shares

Lion roaring in the wild, symbolising a rising Liontown share price.
Broker Notes

Up 117% in a year, should you still buy Liontown shares now?

A leading analyst delivers his verdict on the soaring Liontown share price.

Read more »

Young successful engineer, with blueprints, notepad, and digital tablet, observing the project implementation on construction site and in mine.
Resources Shares

Which mining minnow is up more than 100% after a former Fortescue exec joined the board?

A top shelf team has joined, and bought into, this junior company.

Read more »

Investor looking at falling ASX share price on computer screen.
Resources Shares

BHP shares crash 21% in March so far: Time to sell up?

The mining giant's shares started the month at an all-time high.

Read more »

Business people standing at a mine site smiling.
Resources Shares

How much could the Fortescue share price rise in the next year?

Let’s dig into the potential of Fortescue shares…

Read more »

Two CEOs shaking hands on a deal.
Resources Shares

Own BHP shares? Here's an expert's view on the new CEO

One of the world’s biggest miners has a new boss.

Read more »

Man in yellow hard hat looks through binoculars as man in white hard hat stands behind him and points.
Resources Shares

Are Fortescue shares a top buy in March?

Fortescue shares have delivered strong returns, but are they still a buy?

Read more »

A female athlete in green spandex leaps from one cliff edge to another representing 3 ASX shares that are destined to rise and be great
Share Gainers

Guess which ASX lithium share is leaping 14% in Friday's sinking market

Investors are piling into this small-cap ASX lithium miner today. But why?

Read more »

Engineer looking at mining trucks at a mine site.
Resources Shares

4 cheap Aussie rare earths companies which are worth a look, according to Wilsons Advisory

Despite a sell-off, the fundamentals of the sector remain strong.

Read more »