Morgans picks this ASX share to buy for the oil recovery trade

The energy sector is chalking up another day of gains as the outlook brightens for the oil price and a …

| More on:
ASX oil share price buy represented by cash notes spilling out of oil pipe Suez ASX energy shares

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The energy sector is chalking up another day of gains as the outlook brightens for the oil price and a leading broker is urging you to buy this ASX share today.

The Brent crude benchmark has jumped by nearly 10% in two weeks from a low of US$65.11 to over US$70 a barrel.

ASX shares linked to the oil price have joined the party and most continued to rally today.

Broker lists one ASX energy share to buy

The Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA) share price added 2.2% to $2.10, Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH) share price jumped 2% to $4.11 and Worley Ltd (ASX: WOR) share price gained 1% to $12.17.

But there's one often overlooked ASX share that should be on your radar. This is the Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KSR) share price as Morgans reiterated its "add" recommendation on the stock.

The broker's bullish call follows Karoon reaching a final investment decision (FID) on its Patola oil field.

Karoon production to double

"Given the high IRR (24%) and fast payback period (~3 years), we never saw much risk of Patola not reaching FID," said Morgans.

"But the development should bolster market confidence in what we see as a low-risk/high-return organic growth profile that will double KAR's current production."

Karoon's current production stands at around 12,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (bopd). Management is expecting to produce 10,000 bopd from Patola starting from the March quarter of 2023.

Higher costs offset by other tailwinds

But it isn't all good news. The capital expenditure (capex) on the project is higher than originally forecast. Bringing Patola into production is expected to cost US$175 million to US$195 million. That's ahead of initial estimates of US$130 million.

"More than offsetting the higher capex was the debt KAR has secured," said Morgans.

"Both larger (actual US$160m vs MorgE US$100m) and cheaper (actual 4.25% vs MorgE 5.5%) than we had expected KAR to be able to achieve. This is material for KAR's cost of capital, which we have now adjusted lower."

Karoon share price valuation uplift

The lower cost of debt means that the broker's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for the Karoon falls to 8% from 9.5%.

The lower the WACC, the higher the valuation on the Karoon share price. Additionally, the reduction in the expected Patola decline rate is a further boost to valuation.

These two positives more than offsets the higher-than-expected capex for the project.

Morgans increased its 12-month price target on the Karoon share price to $1.90 from $1.80 a share.

This implies a close to 40% upside for the shares.

Brendon Lau owns shares of Worley Ltd. Follow me on Twitter @brenlau.

The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Broker Notes

A young man punches the air in delight as he reacts to great news on his mobile phone.
Broker Notes

These ASX 200 shares could rise 30% to 50%

Brokers have good things to say about these cheap shares.

Read more »

A female ASX investor looks through a magnifying glass that enlarges her eye and holds her hand to her face with her mouth open as if looking at something of great interest or surprise.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week

Brokers gave buy ratings to these ASX shares last week. Why are they bullish?

Read more »

A happy young couple lie on a wooden deck using a skateboard for a pillow.
Broker Notes

10 Aussie stocks to buy in FY 2026

Let's see which shares analysts think could be buys in the upcoming financial year.

Read more »

watch
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

Mum playing with her baby boy holding him on her tummy as she lays down while smiling about the Bubs share price going up today
Broker Notes

Following two unfortunate incidents, what's Macquarie's price target on Monash IVF shares?

Is Monash IVF a buying opportunity?

Read more »

A happy male investor turns around on his chair to look at a friend while a laptop runs on his desk showing share price movements
Broker Notes

Macquarie tips 18% return for this ASX 200 stock

The broker thinks this blue chip's profits are going to rebound in FY 2026.

Read more »

Three happy office workers cheer as they read about good financial news on a laptop.
Broker Notes

Bell Potter names more of the best ASX 200 shares to buy in FY26

These shares are among the best to buy in the new financial year according to its analysts.

Read more »

Suncorp share price Businessman cheering and smiling on smartphone
Broker Notes

5 ASX 200 shares for smart investors to buy in July

Brokers think these shares could be in the buy zone ahead of the new month.

Read more »