Will the ASX share e-commerce boom last?

Morgan Stanley has shared some thoughts about how COVID-19 accelerated the adoption of e-commerce and other parts of the economy.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak has shared some interesting thoughts about the impacts of COVID-19 on the internet. His thoughts and comments could be relevant to e-commerce ASX shares.

Mr Nowak pointed out that the internet played a big part in helping households and businesses alike get through the COVID-19 lockdowns. People turned to online food shopping – my own household did too – streamed entertainment or perhaps played video games.

A big question for him is – are these changes permanent or will the world go back to "old habits and real-world experiences."

Which ASX shares have seen online shopping booms?

Many businesses have seen an increase in sales and profit thanks to the rapid increase of e-commerce revenue.

There are some e-commerce ASX shares that are purely online and have seen large growth like Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW), Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN) and Redbubble Ltd (ASX: RBL).

However, there's also a larger group of ASX retail shares that have both in-store and online offerings, and the online sales have surged higher. Some examples are: Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), Adairs Ltd (ASX: ADH), JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH), Baby Bunting Group Ltd (ASX: BBN) and Bapcor Ltd (ASX: BAP).

Indeed, the supermarket businesses of Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) are also seeing elevated levels of online sales growth.

What is Morgan Stanley expecting to happen?

Mr Nowak said that COVID-19 has changed what people are willing to do. He pointed out that people may have preferred to do the food shopping themselves or try on clothes first before buying them when COVID-19 wasn't around. Morgan Stanley thinks that COVID-19 has brought forward the adoption of e-commerce by three years. He wrote (referring to the US):

Could reopening reverse that trend? We don't believe so. We do expect slower growth in 2021, with consumers eager to spend again on experiences such as travel and restaurants, but the rising trendline for online adoption should continue. We estimate that e-commerce grew by about 40%, or $240 billion, in 2020—three times more than in 2018 and 2019. For 2021, after accounting for the anticipated release of pent-up spending for travel and other live experiences, we expect e-commerce to grow by roughly 9%.

Mr Nowak went on to say that the environment for real estate investment trusts (REITs) and physical stores may never be the same again because of COVID-19 pressures and the adoption of online shopping.

He also commented that last-mile logistics will become increasingly important as customers expect faster delivery of their shopping and food delivery. Mr Nowak commented:

Shared mobility, e-commerce, food apps and grocery delivery leaders have already opened up a significant total addressable market—perhaps as large as $2.6 trillion in offline U.S. consumer spending. Execution and real-time tracking will matter and the platforms with subscription offerings and product bundles could see an advantage in the race to drive retention/frequency.

Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Kogan.com ltd and Temple & Webster Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. recommends ADAIRS FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Bapcor. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET, Wesfarmers Limited, and Woolworths Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended ADAIRS FPO, Kogan.com ltd, and Temple & Webster Group Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Retail Shares

Happy shopper at a clothes shop.
Retail Shares

The share price of this All Ords stock has jumped higher again. Here's why

Here's why Myer's share price is outperforming.

Read more »

A smiling woman at a hardware shop selects paint colours from a wall display.
Retail Shares

Wesfarmers shares recently hit a 52-week high. Can they go higher?

This business continues to impress investors.

Read more »

a jewellery store attendant stands at a cabinet displaying opulent necklaces and earrings featuring diamonds and precious stones.
Retail Shares

Would Warren Buffett buy Lovisa shares right now?

Is this a sparkly opportunity?

Read more »

Happy shopper at a clothes shop.
Earnings Results

Why did Myer shares just rocket 9%?

Investors are piling into Myer shares on Friday. But why?

Read more »

a thoughtful shopper with shopping bags wearing sparkly gold dress and matching shoes reclines on a chair with hand to chin in thought.
Retail Shares

Can Lovisa's new high profile CEO take Lovisa shares to new heights?

Is Lovisa about to embark on a new era of growth?

Read more »

A woman sits on sofa pondering a question.
Retail Shares

After soaring 244% in 5 years, how much further upside does Macquarie tip for Nick Scali shares?

The broker's expectations remain steady.

Read more »

Girl with make up and jewellery posing.
Retail Shares

Buying the dip: $5,000 invested in Lovisa shares a month ago is now worth…

It's been an outstanding first month for new Lovisa shareholders.

Read more »

Woman checking out new iPads.
Retail Shares

JB Hi-Fi share price sinks on sales growth figures

JB Hi-Fi shares are under pressure on Wednesday. But why?

Read more »