Some ASX shares could benefit from a second post-COVID-19 boom, according to Jarden.
The broker analysed the latest Medicare data and is predicting a COVID baby boom this year.
This coincides with a ramp-up in economic growth from government stimulus and receding threats posed by the pandemic.
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COVID baby boomers
The number of early-stage ultrasounds for those who are within the first 16-weeks of their pregnancies have risen materially.
"Looking at the number of benefits paid across four Medicare items (covering <12 week and 12-16 week ultrasounds), shows a notable rise in the number of scans since Apr-20," said Jarden.
"While the peak in Jul-20 was likely elevated due to catchup from earlier COVID-19 delays, the fact that ultrasounds have averaged +12% y/y since then suggests it is more than a blip."
Not all ASX shares can benefit from COVID baby bump
Rising population growth is a positive for ASX shares and the broader economy. But don't get excited just yet.
The thing is, the rise in births isn't likely to offset the collapse in migration due to the global pandemic.
"Indeed, even assuming a 10% y/y rise in births over 2021 (which fades by end-22), population growth is still likely to be just 0.5% y/y in 2021 and 0.7% over 2022," said Jarden.
"This compares to FY21 Budget forecasts of 0.3% / 0.6%, down from 1.5% pre-COVID."
This means the baby bump won't translate to a wide-spread tailwind for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO).
Clucky-lucky ASX shares
However, this isn't to say there won't be ASX winners from this thematic. The Ramsay Health Care Limited Fully Paid Ord. Shrs (ASX: RHC) share price is one beneficiary.
The hospital operator had noted an increase in maternity bookings when it released its latest profit results. Ramsay reported record bookings for the months of March and April.
This trend could persist as households have more disposable income coming out of the pandemic. This may prompt more expectant mums to opt for private hospitals instead of public ones.
The broker estimates that maternity represents around 7% of Ramsay's Australian hospital revenues. Growth in maternity revenue is tipped to return to around 5%.
More than a baby boost
Another baby boom winner is the Baby Bunting Group Ltd (ASX: BBN) share price. Since infant products retailing giant Toys 'R' Us collapsed in 2018, Baby Bunting has grown into the dominant chain in this country.
Retailers have already enjoyed strong sales from cashed-up consumers who can't spend on holidays. Baby Bunting will get an additional boost from clucky Aussies.
