Why is the Xero (ASX:XRO) share price down 19% in 2021?

The Xero (ASX: XRO) share price has had a rough start in 2021, falling by around 19%, even as vaccines start to roll out. What's the story?

| More on:
wondering about asx share price represented by man surrounded by question marks

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

It has certainly been a rough start to the year for Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) shares. After rocketing 84% higher in 2020, the Xero share price has been steadily drifting back to earth so far in 2021.

In fact, Xero shares have slumped by more than 19% in just two months. This is almost two-thirds as much as the company fell by during the COVID-19 induced panic which bottomed out on 23 March last year.

What's dragging down the Xero share price?

The timing of the slump in the Xero share price does seem odd. Vaccines are being rolled out at a rapid rate and new cases of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom and United States have been plunging. In fact, we have never been closer to an end to the pandemic. Surely this would be good news for Xero's small business customers?

With no material company announcements in 2021, one possible factor dragging down the Xero share price is the prospect of rising interest rates. As economic activity starts to pick up again, we are likely to see some of the emergency measures used to keep the economic heart beating being eased. This means we could be waving good-bye to record low interest rates.

Rising interest rates can be bad news for a company's share price because future earnings get discounted at a higher rate, reducing its fundamental value.

Another possibility for the drift lower is simply that the Xero share price got caught up with the post-COVID tech rally and the market got ahead of itself. This was amplified when Xero was added to the MSCI Global Standard Index late last year, boosting interest in the company.

Should you be worried?

Neither factor, interest rate worries or shifting investor sentiment, is really related to how Xero's business is performing. Is Xero likely to see lower subscriber growth because of COVID-19? Absolutely, but that is not new information.

In the six months to September 2020, Xero announced it had slashed spending on advertising and marketing in response to the pandemic which would slow growth. Even then, Xero added 168,000 new subscribers during the period and grew free cash flow from NZ$4.8 million to NZ$54.3 million.

It's worth remembering too that in the five years to 31 March 2020 Xero was able to grow revenue at a compound annual growth rate of 36%! Xero's full-year FY21 results are due to be released on 13 May 2021 and investors will be paying keen attention to how the company plans to revive growth again for the years ahead.

Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

Scott just revealed what he believes could be the 'five best ASX stocks' for investors to buy right now. We believe these stocks are trading at attractive prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now...

See The 5 Stocks *Returns as of 30 April 2025

Motley Fool contributor Regan Pearson owns shares of Xero. You can follow him on Twitter @Regan_InvestsThe Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Technology Shares

Two smiling work colleagues discuss an investment or business plan at their office.
Technology Shares

Why Goldman Sachs rates this ASX tech share as a top buy

Let's see why the broker rates this stock highly right now.

Read more »

A woman sits at her computer with her hand to her mouth and a contemplative smile on her face as she reads about the performance of Allkem shares on her computer
Technology Shares

WiseTech shares have surged 34% since April. Is it too late to buy?

Can WiseTech shares keep charging higher? Here’s what this investing expert expects.

Read more »

A man in full American NFL playing kit crouches over with his arms across his chest in a defensive stance against a dark background.
Technology Shares

ASX 300 tech stock charges 7% higher to record high on stellar results

This tech stock delivered another impressive result this morning.

Read more »

a man sits at his desk wearing a business shirt and tie and has a hearty laugh at something on his mobile phone.
Technology Shares

Up 87% in 12 months: Why this ASX tech share is still a top buy

This technology business still has loads of potential, according to a fund manager.

Read more »

a group of three cybersecurity experts stand with satisfied looks on their faces with one holding a laptop computer while he group stands in front of a large bank of computers and electronic equipment.
Technology Shares

2 ASX 200 tech stocks Morgans rates as buys

The leading broker has named a couple of shares to buy right now.

Read more »

Man smiling at a laptop because of a rising share price.
Technology Shares

Is it time to buy ASX data centre shares?

ASX data centre shares have been rebounding lately. Will they continue to?

Read more »

a group of people sit around a computer in an office environment.
Earnings Results

Guess which ASX 200 tech stock is rocketing 12% on record results

Another half, another record result from this high-quality company.

Read more »

Man on his laptop standing next to data centres.
AI Stocks

3 reasons to buy this $9 billion ASX 200 AI stock today

A leading expert forecasts this $9 billion ASX 200 AI stock will deliver “meaningful earnings upside”.

Read more »