Vocus (ASX:VOC) founder: ASX is in 'bubble territory'

Is the ASX 200 Index (ASX:XJO) in bubble teritory? These 2 venture capitalists think it might be. Here's how, and why.

| More on:
A hand holding a pin about to burst a balloon, indicating a crash or drop in asx shares

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and ASX shares are unquestionably making most investors very happy right now. The ASX 200 Index just had its best month since the 1980s in November and, on today's gains, is up almost 13% since 30 October.

The ASX 200 has also pretty much seen off the losses that the coronavirus-induced market crash brought us for the year, and is now up more than 47% since the lows of 23 March.

But the higher shares climb, the more investors have to lose, and so the more nervous they tend to get.

According to reporting in the Australian Financial Review (AFR), one investor is especially so, calling the current share market "overvalued". That investor is James Spenceley, a founder of the ASX-listed telco Vocus Group Ltd (ASX: VOC).

These days, Mr Spenceley describes himself as a 'venture capitalist', but still isn't afraid to call out what he calls "outsized valuations". He notes that if he took Vocus to IPO right now, he'd probably manage a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 if the company hit the boards today, rather than the P/E ratio of 5 that Vocus managed upon its ASX debut:

Everything is overvalued, there's absolutely no question, we're into bubble territory. I think the important differentiator is bubbles can keep going for a very long while.

He also told the AFR that, "people could draw down from their mortgage at 2.5 per cent and put money into the stockmarket making 15, 20 per cent a day, a month…". He concludes by stating "we're not necessarily commenting on value… the heart of the problem is complete obliviousness to risk".

The ASX 200 party rages on

The AFR also quotes another venture capitalist with concerns over the current market. Mark McConnell is CEO of Citadel Group Ltd (ASX: CGL) and also reckons there are danger signs in the current market. He told the AFR that young investors were "after an instant golden goose".

Mr McConnell singles out the red hot buy now, pay later (BNPL) sector as an example:

When I read some of the reports around some of the fintech and buy now, pay later [stocks], I get uncomfortable with statements such as, 'it will eventually grow into its valuation'. For a value investor that doesn't really work for my paradigm.

He goes on to blame young and speculative investors for not putting in the time and research to navigate risk on the market:

I'm continually amazed at how many people buy on the strength of the bouncing ball moving up and down on the screen but yet they never read an annual report, they never turn up to an annual general meeting, they've got no idea what the company does.

It's a similar sentiment to the one Warren Buffett made 20 years ago. Food for thought!

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Share Market News

Two brokers analysing stocks.
Broker Notes

Analysts say these ASX 300 shares are buys with 14% to 25% upside

Great returns could be on the cards for buyers of these shares according to analysts.

Read more »

Five young people sit in a row having fun and interacting with their mobile phones.
Share Market News

5 ASX 200 growth shares to buy in December

Analysts think these shares could be great options for growth investors next month.

Read more »

A male investor sits at his desk looking at his laptop screen holding his hand to his chin pondering whether to buy Macquarie shares
Share Market News

5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday

How will the Australian market finish the week? Let's find out.

Read more »

A happy elderly woman smiles and cheers as she looks at good investment news on her laptop.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

The ASX 200 notched up another record high this Thursday.

Read more »

Green arrow with green stock prices symbolising a rising share price.
Record Highs

Wait, did the ASX 200 just hit another all-time high?!

It was another big day for the ASX 200 record books this Thursday.

Read more »

Three shareholders climbing ladders up into the clouds
Share Gainers

11 ASX All Ords shares rising faster than Nvidia over the past year

Who knew? Here are the homegrown ASX companies outperforming Nvidia on share price growth over the past 12 months.

Read more »

a man wearing a gold shirt smiles widely as he is engulfed in a shower of gold confetti falling from the sky. representing a new gold discovery by ASX mining share OzAurum Resources
Share Market News

Guess which ASX mining share is jumping 8% on 'exciting gold discovery'

It has been a golden day for owners of this mining share. Let's find out why.

Read more »

Buy and sell keys on an Apple keyboard.
Broker Notes

1 ASX 200 share to buy and 1 to sell now

Goldman Sachs has given its verdict on these two stocks.

Read more »