What would it take for the ASX 200 to hit 7,000 again?

What would it take for the ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) to hit 7,000 points again, just like it did in February? The ASX banks play a big role.

asx share price resignation represented by man kicking miniature man through the air

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Today, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has reached a new post-March high of 6,562 points. That's 6% higher than where the index was a month ago, 17.6% higher than where it was 6 months ago and 44% higher than the low point we saw on 23 March during the coronavirus-induced market crash. However, it's also 2% below the level the ASX 200 started 2020 at, and 8.5% below the all-time high of 7,162 points it reached in February.

Yes, the ASX 200 has only crossed 7,000 points at one period in its entire history, and that was for a period of fewer than 2 months at the start of this year.

So what would it take for the ASX 200 to go back over 7,000 points?  One might think, due to the effects and maladies from the coronavirus pandemic, that reaching a pre-pandemic stock market high is unfeasible in the current climate.

However, that view could be rendered moot by looking at the United States markets right now. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) (one of the benchmark indexes for the US markets) has just made a new high. Not a 2-month or a 6-month high, but an all-time high. On Monday this week, the Dow closed at 29,950 points, a level it has never closed at or above in history, including the 'golden', pre-COVID months of January and February this year.

Why the markets are surging to new highs might be a question for another time, but let's see what would need to happen for the ASX 200 to follow the Dow and make new highs of its own.

How do banks fit into the ASX 200?

The ASX 200 is a market capitalisation-weighted index. This means that the largest companies (by market cap) within the index have the most influence on the index. To illustrate, the ASX 200's largest holding is CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) with a 7.78% weighting. The smallest constituent is Western Areas Ltd (ASX: WSA) with a 0.03% weighting. That means if CSL goes up 2% on any day, it's going to have more of an impact on the ASX 200 than if Western Areas goes up 200%.

Together, the top 10 shares in the ASX 200 make up roughly 43% of the total weighting. Of those top 10, 5 are banks: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG).

Together, these ASX bank shares have a collective weighting of 21.4% in the ASX 200. Why is this important? Well, because all 5 of these companies (we might make an exception to Macquarie here), operate in the same industry, in the same market and under the same conditions. The big four especially have an oligopolistic hold on the Australian retail banking market. That, in turn, means the factors that affect one bank's share price are likely to affect them all.

For the ASX 200 to reach 7,000 points, it's likely that the ASX banking sector will need to carry the load, as it were. Remember, last time the ASX 200 was over 7,000 points, the big four were trading with valuations far above what we see today.

Foolish takeaway

Looking at the numbers, a logical conclusion could draw us to this scenario: the only way the ASX 200 is going to go back over 7,000 points is if the ASX banks appreciate considerably, or else the rest of the ASX 200 has an exceptional growth period and picks up the slack.

Sebastian Bowen owns shares of National Australia Bank Limited. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

A female sharemarket analyst with red hair and wearing glasses looks at her computer screen watching share price movements.
Broker Notes

Up 34% this year, can Challenger shares keep rising according to Macquarie?

The leading broker has released a new research note.

Read more »

A man holds his head in his hands, despairing at the bad result he's reading on his computer.
Share Fallers

Guess which ASX 200 stock is crashing 42% on big news

Big bad news is weighing heavily on this stock today.

Read more »

An analyst wearing a dark blue shirt and glasses sits at his computer with his chin resting on his hands as he looks at the CBA share price movement today
Opinions

Expert's verdict on 3 ASX 200 shares (2 have doubled in value and the other has lost 29%)

Two of these stocks were the best performers of their sectors in FY25. Should you buy, hold, or sell?

Read more »

A male ASX 200 broker wearing a blue shirt and black tie holds one hand to his chin with the other arm crossed across his body as he watches stock prices on a digital screen while deep in thought
Share Market News

5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Here's what to expect on the Australian share market today.

Read more »

The silhouettes of ten people holding hands with their arms raised against the sky, as the sun rises or sets in the background.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

The ASX managed to bank a small rise this Tuesday.

Read more »

Sport trainer talking to little girl who is climbing wooden ladder in gym.
Share Gainers

Why Vault Minerals, Droneshield, Westgold Resources shares are climbing higher today

These shares are gaining on Tuesday, but why?

Read more »

A hipster-looking man with bushy beard and multiple arm tattoos sits on the floor against a sofa reading a tablet with his hand on his chin as though he is deep in thought.
Share Market News

ASX 200 slides on unexpected RBA interest rate call

The ASX 200 is tumbling on the RBA’s latest interest rate announcement.

Read more »

A young woman smiles as she rides a zip line high above the trees.
Financial Shares

5 best ASX 200 financial shares of FY25 (CBA didn't make the cut!)

These stocks were well and truly 'in the black' for share price growth last financial year.

Read more »