Does time in the market really beat timing the market?

Does time in the market really beat timing the market when it comes to ASX shares? Here's a possible answer with help from Warren Buffett.

| More on:
Sydney airport share price represented by hand placing a clock into a piggy bank

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

A common phrase one might hear in the course of their investing journey is the old maxim 'time in the market beats timing the market'. Whilst this proverb appears simple in nature, it is actually quite a multi-layered concept. Still waters run deep and all that.

So what does this quote actually mean? Well, on the surface, it tells us that investing capital consistently and steadily into the share market is a better strategy than trying to jump in and out of the market when you see a 'low' or a 'high'. In this way, this quote sort of goes against that other famous investing dictum 'buy low, sell high'.

But why is this the case? Surely, it's better to 'buy the dips' than just focusing on maximising the 'time in the market'…

Well, theoretically yes it is. Waiting until a quality share hits a low pricing point is a great way to make money. But theory and practice are extremely divergent when it comes to investing. See, we investors just aren't very good at the whole 'timing' thing. It's psychologically abhorrent to us as humans to sink large amounts of capital into shares when the market is selling off. Doubts start to creep in, like 'what if it drops again tomorrow?' or 'I'll just wait a little longer'. No one truly knows when the market tops out or bottoms out until after it has happened. As such, any decision to try and 'find the bottom' is actually a gamble, a bet on when you think the markets will give you the best deal. If you get this deal wrong, the consequence is usually a permanent loss of capital.

Time vs Timing

So why is time in the market so much better? Well, firstly, it's because it takes this 'guess the bottom' element out of the equation. By focusing on the long term, it's far easier to ignore the cut and thrust of the markets from day to day. Sure, it's still scary watching the value of your share portfolio fall from time to time (as we saw back in March). But today, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and ASX shares have recovered substantially from where they were on 23 March. All you had to do to benefit from this was… give it time.

But time in the market is really about harnessing the power of compound interest. Compounding is the best thing about investing in ASX shares, and it's usually what makes investors like Warren Buffett rich. Why do you think Buffett, at age 90, is as rich as he has ever been? Time in the market of course. If you are able to achieve a consistently high annual rate of return over decades and decades, building wealth is almost inevitable. And Buffett has never tried to time a market in his life. But pushing and pulling your money in and out of the market kneecaps the compounding process. And all it takes is one massive mistime to end up back at square one.

Foolish takeaway

Long story short, I believe time in the market beats timing the market, every time. And it's easier too. What's not to like?

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on How to invest

Beautiful young couple enjoying in shopping, symbolising passive income.
How to invest

If an investor puts $500 per month in an ASX shares portfolio, here's what they could have in 10 years

Harnessing the power of compounding can bring you great wealth...

Read more »

Man holding fifty Australian Dollar banknote in his hands, symbolising dividends, symbolising dividends.
How to invest

How much would I need in an ASX share portfolio to earn $500 a month?

Want a monthly income boost? Here's one way you could do it.

Read more »

A person holds their hands over three piggy banks, protecting and shielding their money and investments.
How to invest

I'm preparing for an ASX stock market crash in 2025

Whatever happens next year, my portfolio will be ready...

Read more »

Cheerful boyfriend showing mobile phone to girlfriend in dining room. They are spending leisure time together at home and planning their financial future.
How to invest

My ASX share portfolio is up 40% in 2024! Here's my strategy for 2025

Investing in quality companies paid off in 2024. Here's what I did.

Read more »

Young happy athletic woman listening to music on earphones while jogging in the park, symbolising passive income.
How to invest

Here's my $3 a day ASX passive income plan for 2025

ASX dividend stocks provide a unique path for building a passive income stream.

Read more »

A large transparent piggy bank contains many little pink piggy banks, indicating diversity in a share portfolio
How to invest

Is your ASX share portfolio too diversified?

Too much of a good thing can negatively impact your portfolio.

Read more »

A happy young couple lie on a wooden deck using a skateboard for a pillow.
How to invest

Concerned about ASX shares at all-time highs? Don't worry, you've got options

Investing in other asset classes can help mitigate the share market's highs...

Read more »

a smiling picture of legendary US investment guru Warren Buffett.
How to invest

I would listen to Warren Buffett's advice and buy undervalued ASX shares today

It's never a bad idea to follow in the footsteps of the Oracle of Omaha.

Read more »