Did Apple and Tesla stock splits signal the stock market top?

Gaging the historical impact of a stock split on share value.

| More on:
Boral share price divestment Banknote ripped in half

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Last month, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) carried out 5-for-1 and 4-for-1 splits respectively. Leading into the splits, both stocks furiously rallied to new highs on the news.

With investors treating both split decisions so bullishly, it's important to highlight the splits' influence on market fluctuations in the past, and if this is truly an investable event. Let's take a closer look.

What is a stock split?

Stock splits occur when a company decides to expand its existing share count by a certain number. Every shareholder receives additional shares for each share they previously held. For example, Tesla's 5-for-1 split resulted in shareholders receiving 5 shares for every 1 share previously held.

The new price per share is determined by dividing the previous share price by the factor by which the share float grew. This event has zero impact on a company's valuation or future prospects. Instead of 1 share at $2000, you have 5 shares at $400.

Some historical context

Stock split popularity coincided with two noticeably troubling stock market crashes. The concept of a split was invented in 1927 where it was liberally used until the Great Depression ravaged markets in 1929.

Splits can make it easier for inexperienced investors to try their hand in investing, thinking they are getting compelling deals. Some investors in 1929, however, didn't have access to investing resources and didn't fully grasp the lack of effect a stock split has on value. The pain was quite real for some in the years that followed with stock market averages dropping by 80% by 1932.

What about the Dot-com bubble? Since 1980, markets have averaged 44 stock splits per year. From 1998-2000 -- the peak of the Dot-com bubble -- that number more than doubled to 91 average annual splits.

That noticeable bump again coincided with the market peaking and later experiencing a painful crash. Just like in 1929, stock splits were taken -- by some -- as an event making stocks more affordable and valuable to shareholders. That is simply not the case. For hot Dot-com stocks like Qualcomm it took until last year to reclaim its all-time highs of $89.66 -- nearly 2 decades after the technology bubble popped.

Splits today

This year, Apple's and Tesla's share prices rocketed higher in the weeks leading up to the announced splits. For example, in the 2 weeks prior to the event Tesla's equity value jumped 81% with no other news. The chart below clearly depicts the notable outperformance Tesla has enjoyed over the S&P 500 since the announcement was made August 11th. It has since given back over half of that equity bump, but the stock is still far outperforming the S&P 500, as shown below. Apple's price action has been slightly less volatile but similar. While the wildly swinging charts of Apple and Tesla do look eerily similar to split stocks in 1929 and 2000, there is reason to believe this time is different. Why?

S&P 500 and Tesla stock charts over the last three months

Image source: YCharts

Today, cautionary resources on the irrelevant nature of a stock split are more readily accessible. Furthermore, the advent of fractional shares removed some of the demand for cheaper shares. Now investors can buy a small piece of an Apple share, rather than having to shell out well over $100 to do so. This essentially removes any unique benefit from splitting a stock. Fractional shares foster the same affordability for investors starting out that splits do, without all of the drama.

Another interesting difference between this period of high-profile stock splits vs. prior periods? A 2020 federal funds rate that is below 1% versus over 5% in 1929 and 2000. Today's historically low interest rates provide weaker direct competition to equity.

With a Federal Reserve explicitly telling you it's committed to higher inflation in recent meetings, that rate should continue to stay low and be a boon to equity valuations (raising rates is deflationary). While Apple and Tesla may be enjoying share returns due to a less-than-meaningful stock split, the returns could stick around amid monetary policy that is far more favorable than in 1929 or 2000.

So what? 

While I would totally avoid chasing parabolic stock price rises in response to stock splits, I do not believe this round of splits is depicting a market peak like it has in the past. Readily accessible resources on how little stock splits actually matter, fractional shares, and a Fed fixated on boosting inflation all provide a more comfortable setup for stock markets to continue pushing higher. Still, investors would be well-served tune out the noise associated with splits altogether.

This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

Bradley Freeman owns shares of Qualcomm. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Apple and Tesla. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Apple. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on International Stock News

A man looking at his laptop and thinking.
International Stock News

Why Alphabet stock was sliding today

Let's take a look.

Read more »

A man looking at his laptop and thinking.
International Stock News

Nvidia's stock was down despite its amazing earnings. Here's what history says is coming next

Although it might seem to defy logic, it's not an uncommon phenomenon.

Read more »

A woman holds a soldering tool as she sits in front of a computer screen while working on the manufacturing of technology equipment in a laboratory environment.
International Stock News

Nvidia share price slips despite 94% revenue growth

Q3 earnings beat expectations, but what about guidance?

Read more »

high, climbing, record high
International Stock News

Could the S&P 500 Index hit 6,500 by the end of 2025?

Could the index climb higher?

Read more »

a small child holds his chin with his head on the side in a serious thinking pose against a background of graphic question marks and a yellow lightbulb.
International Stock News

Is it too late to buy Nvidia shares?

Is Nvidia stock a buy ahead of its third-quarter earnings report tomorrow?

Read more »

a group of people stand examining a large glowing cystral ball held in the hands of one of the group members while the others regard it with various expressions of wonder, curiousity and scepticism.
International Stock News

Here's what to expect from Nvidia on November 20

Can Nvidia score another win?

Read more »

Two people lazing in deck chairs on a beautiful sandy beach through their hands up in the air.
International Stock News

2 no-brainer Warren Buffett stocks to buy right now

While replicating Buffett's success isn't possible, there are a handful of his investments that are no-brainer buys.

Read more »

A man with a beard and wearing dark sunglasses and a beanie head covering raises a fist in happy celebration as he sits at is computer in a home environment.
International Stock News

3 reasons to buy Nvidia stock before November 20

This week marks a big moment for tech investors as perhaps the most anticipated earnings of the year will be…

Read more »