Why reporting season isn't the bloodbath we expected

COVID-19 was supposed to have mortally wounded listed companies and investors. But "hell on earth" didn't eventuate this reporting season.

| More on:
Falling ASX shares prices represented by scared male investor holding hand to head

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The coronavirus pandemic has triggered human tragedy and economic mayhem, so this reporting season was not expected to be pretty.

However, we've now hit the final week of results and the market is far from a bloodbath. 

The All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) actually gained 0.1% last week, while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lost just 0.2%.

It's not like companies are bragging about massive profits, so what's the story?

It seems COVID-19's omnipresence in the media and pre-emptive downgrade of expectations has cushioned any possible shock.

"Although earnings have slumped, this had already been largely anticipated by the market and the actual results have not been a lot worse than feared," BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese told The Motley Fool.

"As has been the case in the United States, equity performance during the latest earnings reporting season is testament to the fact that the market is forward looking."

'Beats' beat the 'misses'

According to Morgans, the percentage of results that were better than expectations ("beats") was the same as the "misses" among the 50 largest companies in the ASX.

Outside the top 50, the beats actually outnumbered the misses – 34% to 18%.

Morgans senior analyst Tom Sartor said reporting season had so far surprised "overly fearful expectations".

"Ultimately FY20 results disrupted by lockdowns and COVID-related one-offs are less meaningful than usual, particularly given the broad lack of FY21 guidance seen so far," he wrote in a blog post.

"Ongoing company trading updates and the AGM season are going to be far more important than usual, providing us with more catalyst trading opportunities which have worked well for us so far."

Even companies that had missed expectations were still "well supported by the market", according to Sartor.

"Whether this can continue when fiscal support scales down will be a key question as we exit August."

Winning and losing sectors

Market nerves were also calmed by results not showing any surprises in terms of which sectors had done well and which fared poorly.

"Travel and leisure areas obviously [fared] the worst," said Bassanese.

"While the resources sector has been supported by high iron-ore prices related to the V-shaped recovery in the Chinese economy."

Government stimulus had helped prop up spending for ASX-listed retail companies.

This was especially the case for players with "a strong online presence" or specialising in "whitegoods or hardware", according to Bassanese.

The finance sector has been subdued this reporting season.

"But, again, not a lot worse than expected – helped by the fact that as yet there has not yet been a surge in loan defaults," Bassanese said.

"My sense is that both the banks and policy makers will be sensitive to the risk of rising loan defaults caused by high unemployment and will be careful in withdrawing support in coming months if the economy remains weak."

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

A woman wearing headphones looks delighted and animated on news she's receiving from her mobile phone that she is holding close to her face.
Share Gainers

Why Brainchip, Fortescue, Mesoblast, and QBE shares are racing higher today

These shares are starting the year in a positive fashion. But why?

Read more »

a man weraing a suit sits nervously at his laptop computer biting into his clenched hand with nerves, and perhaps fear.
Share Fallers

Why Catapult, DroneShield, Lendlease, and Weebit Nano shares are sinking today

These shares are starting the year in the red. What's happening?

Read more »

group of friends jump on the beach
Broker Notes

6 ASX All Ords shares lifted to 'strong buy' consensus ratings for the new year

Brokers upgraded these ASX stocks last month.

Read more »

A man holds his head in his hands, despairing at the bad result he's reading on his computer.
Share Fallers

These were the 5 worst performing ASX 200 shares in 2024

Why did investors sell off these shares last year? Let's find out.

Read more »

Happy woman holding white house model in hand and pointing to it with a pen.
Share Market News

How ASX shares vs. property performed in December

The median Australian home value fell for the first time in almost two years last month.

Read more »

A man wearing glasses sits back in his desk chair with his hands behind his head staring smiling at his computer screens as the ASX share prices keep rising
Best Shares

Did you own the 5 best ASX All Ordinaries shares of 2024?

The ASX All Ords Index slightly outperformed the benchmark ASX 200 in 2024.

Read more »

A male ASX 200 broker wearing a blue shirt and black tie holds one hand to his chin with the other arm crossed across his body as he watches stock prices on a digital screen while deep in thought
Share Market News

5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday

Here's what to expect when the market returns in 2025.

Read more »

Woman on her phone with diagrams of tech sector related elements linking with each other.
Best Shares

Best and worst performing ASX sectors of 2024

The top sector of the ASX 200 delivered almost a 50% gain in 12 months.

Read more »