Warning! ASX investors might be turning away from the share market

There are growing signs that ASX investors are buying up bitcoin, gold and government bonds. What does this mean for ASX 200 shares?

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

It's another ho-hum sort of day on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

At the time of writing, the ASX 200 is down around 0.22% to 6,007.1 points. Since 21 July, the Index has lost 2.4%, going off today's numbers.

This might not seem important at face value. But a few other recent developments in the world of investing have turned my head.

Firstly, gold this week broke its all-time high of US$1,921 an ounce that was last set back in 2011. Since Monday, gold has reached new heights, trading as high as US$1,977 an ounce.

Fair enough, perhaps? With a global pandemic, unprecedented monetary easing, and fears of both deflation and inflation — the ground is certainly fertile for a 'safe haven' asset like gold.

Fellow precious metal silver is also experiencing a pricing boom – more than doubling since March.

But these aren't the only trends that have caught my eye this week.

Bitcoin (remember that?) is also on the move. It has appreciated almost 20% in the last 2 weeks (against the US dollar) and is at its highest level in almost a year. A similar pattern can be seen in other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Litecoin over the same periods.

And according to reporting in the Australian Financial Review (AFR), the appetite for 'safe' government bonds is insatiable right now.

The AFR points out that the Australian Government's auction for 30-year bonds on Monday attracted more than $20 billion in orders. That's despite the almost-negligible rates of interest currently being offered on public bonds (the 10-year Australian government bond currently has a floating yield of 0.86% per annum).

So what's going on?

Fear and loathing on the ASX

I think these trends point to an investor base that is getting extremely nervous. Remember, ASX 200 shares are down just 10% in 2020 so far — despite the worst pandemic the world has seen in a century. That statement in itself is enough to make this writer concerned.

So it's clear investors are trying to diversify and hedge their bets across different asset classes, particularly those with an inverse correlation (either historically or conceptually) to the performance of equity markets (shares) or offer protection against inflation or monetary debasement.

And that includes government bonds, gold and (to a lesser extent) cryptocurrencies.

Foolish takeaway

In these risky times, I understand why some investors are attracted to gold, bond and other asset classes. But the fact remains that ASX shares have been the best performing asset class over the past 100 years and more.

So don't feel the need to follow the investors that are driving up the prices of other assets. As long as you have a portfolio of quality ASX shares, I think you'll do just fine over the long run.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on ⏸️ Risk Managment

Two surfers, one older and one younger, high five with big smiles on their faces.
How to invest

Strategies for successfully navigating market volatility

Master the art of navigating market volatility and learn to ride the waves of the ASX for long-term growth and…

Read more »

ASX shares Business man marking buy on board and underlining it
⏸️ Risk Managment

World's largest fund manager says ASX volatility a great buying opportunity

Here's what the world's largest fund manager is saying about the share market right now.

Read more »

inflation written on wooden cubes being balanced with a piggy bank and small shopping basket
⏸️ Risk Managment

How these 2 fund managers have positioned their portfolios for inflation

These fund managers would rather be safe than sorry when it comes to inflation...

Read more »

inflation written on wooden cubes being balanced with a piggy bank and small shopping basket
⏸️ Risk Managment

Inflation? The tough choice facing all ASX investors right now…

Will inflation come sooner than we think? The answer can affect your ASX share portfolio

Read more »

A piggy bank attached a bicycle pump floats up, indicating rising inflation
Economy

3 things that might happen to ASX shares if inflation returns

Here are 3 things to watch out for if inflation returns...

Read more »

ASX 200 shares RBA taper quantitative easing represented by letters QE sitting on piles of cash
⏸️ Risk Managment

RBA might end QE in 2021! Will the ASX bubble burst?

Reports are suggesting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s quantitative easing (QE) program could be coming to an end.

Read more »

Hand holding a pin next to a bubble with a dollar sign in it
⏸️ Risk Managment

Will the ASX see a share market bubble in 2021?

After a better-than-expected 2020, will the ASX share market see a bubble in 2021? This commentator thinks so, here's why

Read more »

AGL capital raise demerger asx growth shares represented by question mark made out of cash notes
⏸️ Risk Managment

Is the share market starting to look like it did in 1999?

The Nasdaq Composite Index has just had a few years of massive gains. It's starting to look a little similar…

Read more »