The Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) and other travel-related shares have soared in recent weeks. Many investors may think these shares have raced past fair value given current travel restrictions and recession woes. I believe the forward-looking nature of the markets, combined with the unprecedented stimulus, could see the Flight Centre share price and other S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and All Ordinaries (ASX: XAO) travel shares push higher.
Lean and cashed-up businesses
The likes of Flight Centre, Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) and Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) reacted quickly to COVID-19. The companies promptly scaled-back capital expenditure, reduced headcount and raised capital to keep business alive.
Corporate Travel Management has a very capital-light model. Over 70% of its costs are people-related and 50% of the remaining costs are variable. It has a small physical footprint and has the flexibility to hibernate its business. Its pre-COVID-19 business conditions also saw domestic travel account for approximately 60% of group revenues. This may allow the business to benefit from reopening domestic borders.
Webjet has implemented a broad range of interim business initiatives. These have included the deferral of its $12.2 million dividend payment for 1H20, over 440 redundancies and 4-day working weeks for the majority of its remaining staff. It recently raised a total of $275 million from an institutional placement and entitlement offer. This lifts the company's cash and cash equivalents position from $58 million to $333 million.
Likewise, Flight Centre opted to raise $700 million, a significant amount relative to its ~$1.5 billion market capitalisation back in April. But instead of the share price continuing to slump post-capital raise, Flight Centre is not far off doubling from its March lows and it's up more than 28% in June alone.
A slow recovery on the cards
Webjet commented on China's early signs of normalisation with hotel bookings leading into March surging 40% from the previous week. Peak daily bookings for domestic flights also soared 230% from the lowest level recorded in February.
The Sydney Morning Herald reported that Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) "is preparing to scale up its domestic flying from its current 5 per cent of pre-pandemic levels to 40 per cent by the end of July, pending the reopening of state borders."
Qantas CEO, Alan Joyce has also suggested there is pent-up demand for travel and the airline had already experienced a surge in intrastate bookings.
This all spells good news for the Flight Centre share price and travel-related cohorts. I believe the market has largely priced-in the negative economic impact of the coronavirus. The travel industry recovery is imminent and consumers are eager for more than just crowded shopping centres and long queues.
