How is the ASX 200 soaring despite rising unemployment?

Why has the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) surged 20% higher while unemployment figures show 600,000 jobs have been lost due to COVID-19?

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has had a rollercoaster start to the year. Despite initially being hammered by the coronavirus pandemic shutdown and oil price war, the ASX 200 has had a comeback in recent weeks. In fact, the benchmark index has surged 20.78% since bottoming out at 4,546 points on 23 March.

But despite the recovery, there is still plenty of uncertainty in the markets. Just last week we saw that Australia's unemployment rate jumped to 6.2% in April with 600,000 jobs lost during the pandemic.

So, how is the ASX 200 still climbing higher despite the bleak economic data?

Why is the ASX 200 soaring higher?

One thing that is helping the Aussie share market in 2020 is better-than-expected data. While COVID-19 has hit the economy hard, economists had forecast much higher unemployment. In fact, Treasury estimates have forecast unemployment to reach 10% in the June quarter. That means that last week's unemployment figures (while devastating for Aussie businesses and individuals) paint a picture that's less bleak than expected.

The other bit of good news is the easing of coronavirus restrictions. Australia is slowly coming back to life with many states easing restrictions on gatherings. That's good news for operators in some of the hardest-hit sectors like domestic travel, hospitality and leisure. 

There's a long way to go, but the ASX 200 has been climbing higher due to some broader positivity. Share markets are inherently forward-looking, which means investors are pricing in the future rather than the present.

However, there's another big factor driving the ASX 200 higher right now: money supply. The Reserve Bank of Australia has injected a lot of cash into the economy while the official interest rate is sitting at 0.25%. That means high-interest savings accounts are starting from as little as 0.01% right now.

So, if you're looking to invest your money, a savings account doesn't seem like a great return on investment. It's a similar story with term deposit rates, while bonds are yielding very little. Property in most Aussie towns and cities is very expensive right now, which makes it inaccessible to many investors.

That leaves us with ASX 200 shares. Those Aussies who are still working throughout the pandemic are putting their spare cash into shares to get some sort of return on investment. That's helping boost the share market higher despite concerns over economic growth, migration and other factors hampering the economy.

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

A man looking at his laptop and thinking.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Investors finished the trading week on a sour note today.

Read more »

Happy teen friends jumping in front of a wall.
Share Gainers

4 ASX 200 stocks smashing the benchmark this week

Investors are sending these four ASX 200 stocks soaring this week. But why?

Read more »

A happy young couple lie on a wooden deck using a skateboard for a pillow.
Broker Notes

Bell Potter says this growing ASX 200 stock can rise over 40%

Big returns could be on the cards for buyers of this stock.

Read more »

Broker written in white with a man drawing a yellow underline.
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

A couple makes silly chip moustache faces and take a selfie on their phone.
Share Market News

Which delivered superior returns in FY25: CSL, A2 Milk, or Telstra shares?

We review the share price growth and dividend income delivered to investors in FY25.

Read more »

Woman with an amazed expression has her hands and arms out with a laptop in front of her.
Share Gainers

Why IGO, Johns Lyng, Lynas, and Web Travel shares are pushing higher today

These shares are ending the week on a high. But why?

Read more »

Person with thumbs down and a red sad face poster covering the face.
Share Fallers

Why Imricor, Ora Banda, Ventia, and Vulcan shares are dropping today

These shares are ending the week in the red. But why?

Read more »

Man with rocket wings which have flames coming out of them.
Resources Shares

Up 23% today, why Macquarie forecasts this ASX 200 mining stock could rocket another 33%

Macquarie forecasts more outsized gains to come for this surging ASX 200 mining stock.

Read more »