The irrational bear market has thrown investors many false dawns over the past 2 months. We have had many false starts and bear rallies, all traps for new players. Nonetheless it has created some of the most extraordinary value investing opportunities in my lifetime. Many companies that are almost totally unaffected by the pandemic have seen share prices slashed in blind panic.
For example, the Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price has rocketed up ~60% since its low point on 16 March. IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL) is a company that is marginally impacted. Yet after being over sold dramatically, the IDP share price has risen by 41.4% since 23 March. Lastly, the mighty Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price has risen by 350.6% from its low point on 23 March.
These are not normal returns, just as these are not normal times. However, there are still opportunities in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (INDEXASX: XJO). The 3 ASX 200 shares below are set to see a significant rebound as restrictions start to relax.
Value investing opportunities
Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) has shown itself to be a well managed company with a strong chance of emerging from the oil crisis as a productivity leader. The Santos share price has already risen by ~79% from its low point on 19 March. Yet its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is still 6 points lower than its 10-year average P/E at 9.9.
The Santos share price still has a way to rise. By my calculations it needs to rise another 61% to meet average 10 year P/E levels. That doesn't factor in the huge productivity gains the company has made over the past 2 months. This is a prime candidate for value investing.
The Bank of Queensland Limited (ASX: BOQ) share price has dropped by 33% year to date, giving it a P/E ratio of 7.7. This is 3 points lower than the 10-year average. To get back to this level, the bank's share price will need to rise by 51%.
The bank also has good dividend stability of ~95% despite the present deferral. At the current price, the trailing 12-month dividend yield is 13.4%, placing the company as one of the better paying dividend shares. I believe this bank is a good candidate for value investing. Its share price is likely to see a jump over the next 3 – 6 months as the pandemic eases.
The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has risen 25% from its low point on 16 March. It has another ~17% before equalling its 10-year P/E ratio. However, I don't think the market has fairly valued the company's future earnings.
BHP has 4 things in its favour. First, the low Australian dollar increases the value of every tonne of product sold in USD. Second, the iron ore market has withstood the impacts of COVID-19. Third, BHP is the third largest producer of copper, a commodity soon to see a price increase.
Lastly, the company has no exposure to aluminium, unlike mining stablemate Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO). Aluminium is likely to see further price falls without high car manufacturing volumes.
