Does the negative oil price mean ASX oil stocks are worthless?

This may be the only time in our lives we get to see the WTI turn negative. But will negative crude prices turn our energy stocks to zero?

| More on:
a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Investors woke to the shocking news that a key oil benchmark turned negative in overnight trade for the first time in history. But what does this mean for ASX investors and are our energy stocks therefore worthless?

The futures contract for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to be delivered in May plunged to minus US$37.63 a barrel. This means oil producers are paying their customers to take the commodity.

You have to stand back and appreciate the moment. This could be the only moment in our lifetime to witness such a phenomenon.

Impact on ASX shares

But readers shouldn't be too surprised at the outcome. I had been writing about the possibility of this outcome since March. I even warned that the energy sector bear market could be stuck in a bear market for longer that most.

The bigger question now for investors is what do negative oil prices mean for our leading energy stocks on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO)? This includes Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL), Oil Search Limited (ASX: OSH) and Santos Ltd (ASX: OSH).

It's worth noting that Oil Search is regarded as the most leveraged to the oil price.

Brent vs. WTI

But don't panic. While our oil-exposed shares are expected to tumble this morning, they aren't going to zero or turn negative (shares can't turn negative in case you are worried).

There are a few reasons for this. Firstly, these sector heavyweights aren't oil but gas producers. Gas prices aren't negative even though they tend to follow the oil benchmark with a three-month lag.

Secondly, the benchmark they follow is the European standard Brent price and not the US-centric WTI. The Brent price may have tumbled around 9% to US$25.57 a barrel but it's still in positive territory and isn't expected to invert.

More global customers use the Brent price than WTI. That is an important distinction and is the key reason why Brent is highly unlikely to turn negative. If you are wondering, the Tapis crude price used in Asia is also trading over US$20 a barrel.

Foolish takeaway

By this same token, motorists shouldn't expect petrol stations to pay you to fill up your tank! It's a very seductive thought, but sadly devoid of reality. One needs to remember that there is a cost in processing crude too.

In that respect, airlines like Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) aren't going to get free aviation fuel either, although the depressed crude price will trim fuel bills substantially.

So, while the negative oil price will be a good conversational starter at your next virtual BBQ, it isn't about to change our lives by much.

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Connect with him on Twitter @brenlau.

The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Female miner standing next to a haul truck in a large mining operation.
Resources Shares

Is this the right time to buy Fortescue shares?

Is it time to dig into this iron ore miner?

Read more »

Female worker sitting desk with head in hand and looking fed up
Resources Shares

What does the $100 billion blow for mining exports mean for these ASX 200 stocks?

Are these mining shares worth snapping up at a discount?

Read more »

a female miner looks straight ahead at the camera wearing a hard hat, protective goggles and a high visibility vest standing in from of a mine site and looking seriously with direct eye contact.
Resources Shares

Could Rio Tinto shares be a gold mine in 2025?

Let’s unearth whether this ASX mining share is an opportunity.

Read more »

two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.
Resources Shares

BHP shares rise amid positive class action news

Here’s the latest from BHP on its huge legal case.

Read more »

A female employee in a hard hat and overalls with high visibility stripes sits at the wheel of a large mining vehicle with mining equipment in the background.
Resources Shares

The under-the-radar metal trading at record prices (and 4 ASX mining shares exposed to it)

Which ASX miners have exposure to this soaring, under-the-radar metal?

Read more »

Miner looking at a tablet.
Resources Shares

Why is the Mineral Resources share price racing ahead of the benchmark on Wednesday?

Here’s what’s happening.

Read more »

two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.
Resources Shares

Should you buy the 28% dip on Newmont shares?

Is this sell-off a golden opportunity?

Read more »

Three miners wearing hard hats and high vis vests take a break on site at a mine as the Fortescue share price drops in FY22
Resources Shares

3 ASX mining shares just upgraded by brokers (one with 60% upside!)

Here are 3 ASX mining shares that brokers are backing for growth in an uncertain climate.

Read more »