The ASX retail stock worth buying in this COVID-19 bear market

ASX retail stock have taken a bigger hit than the ASX 200 during the coronavirus pandemic, but there's one stock that is worth buying in the turmoil.

a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Retailers have been among the biggest losers during this coronavirus-triggered bear market that shaved a third of the value from the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) (ASX:XJO).

Consumer-linked stocks suffered more with the likes of the Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price and Adairs Ltd (ASX: ADH) share price tumbling by more than 60% since the market peaked in February.

The sector is likely to remain under pressure for some time yet as job losses continue to mount as companies shutter to stem the spread of COVID-19.

Upgraded to buy

But if there's one consumer stock that's worth picking up in the depth of this crisis, I reckon it's Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG).

The kitchen appliance maker got upgraded to "outperform" by Credit Suisse even as the broker lowered its 12-month price target on the stock to $16.16 from $23.05 a share.

The lower valuation reflects the shorter-term revenue headwind from the COVID-19 pandemic, but even then, this represents around a 30% upside from its current share price.

Bad news priced in

The 40% crash in the Breville share price over the past month reflects the market's belief that a big profit downgrade is looming.

However, Breville hasn't joined the rush of companies to withdraw their earnings guidance in the face of the uncertain economic times.

This doesn't mean one won't be coming. After all, governments around the world are forcing shops to shutter and major US retailers that carry Breville products, such as Williams Sonoma and Sur La Table, have temporarily shut stores in North America.

Don't be surprised if Australia follows Europe's lead to mandate the closures of all non-essential retail shops and even malls.

Well positioned for the downturn

Credit Suisse thinks June has become an important sell-in period for Breville, but that's assuming governments can regain control on the outbreak and relax some of the rules in the coming weeks.   

On the other hand, Breville can pull a few levers to protect profitability.

"BRG should have some ability to manage its inventory position and cost base over the coming months," said Credit Suisse.

"We estimate that a 50% reduction in marketing and R&D expenditure in 2H20 for example could offset a circa 15% gross margin impact."

Glimmer of hope

It's also interesting to see that JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH) and Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN) have reported same store sales growth recently. Both retailers carry Breville products.

One issue that may put off investors is Breville's $169 million debt. In normal times, this won't be much of a concern but the coronavirus crisis is impacting on the ability of companies around the world to roll-over their loans.

"Whilst our ability to assess borrowing headroom is somewhat limited by disclosure of total debt facilities (BRG also has access to seasonal debt facilities under its primary debt facility), we estimate that Net Debt/EBITDA could be maintained below 2.5x under a scenario where forecast gross profit is impacted by 15% in 2H20 and 10% in 2H21," said the broker.

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of Breville Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Cheap Shares

a smiling picture of legendary US investment guru Warren Buffett.
Cheap Shares

I'm listening to Warren Buffett and buying cheap ASX shares

Attractively valued ASX shares are a great call right now, in my view.

Read more »

Dog with a shoe in its mouth.
Cheap Shares

I think these 2 cheap ASX shares are buys for value investors

These businesses could be too cheap to ignore.

Read more »

An Australian farmer wearing a beaten-up akubra hat and work shirt leans on a fence with livestock in the background and a blue sky above.
Cheap Shares

Why I think these 2 ASX 300 shares are steals

These ASX shares have a lot of potential, in my view.

Read more »

Smiling couple looking at a phone at a bargain opportunity.
Cheap Shares

2 cheap ASX 200 shares that look too good to ignore today

Cheap shares are hard, but not impossible, to find right now.

Read more »

A cool dude looks back at the camera while ziplining above the treetops.
Cheap Shares

2 great ASX shares to buy in July: experts

These companies have a lot going for them. Here’s why.

Read more »

A young women pumps her fists in excitement after seeing some good news on her laptop.
Cheap Shares

In an expensive market, 2 ASX 200 companies too cheap to ignore

These two businesses seem far too cheap for what could happen next.

Read more »

a man and a woman kneel in a boxing ring with exaggerated make-up injuries, posing in humorous stance with the woman leaning back on her knees and the man leaning against her bright pink boxing glove as he gasps for air.
Cheap Shares

Is it time to buy these 2 beaten-up ASX shares in 2025?

These ASX shares could be great buys right now.

Read more »

Man smiling at a laptop because of a rising share price.
Cheap Shares

Why this fund manager bought this ASX 300 share for bigger returns

A fund manager thinks good things can happen with this rising ASX share.

Read more »