The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is going to do something today.
It might move up if the market likes the RBA's latest announcement.
It might move down if the number of infections, deaths or negative news causes investors to become even more fearful.
The ASX could go either way. We don't know what's going to happen next.
There are so many talking points hitting the headlines each day: the lockdowns, the travel bans, the government support and the earnings downgrades (plus a few upgrades).
Today, the ASX 200 could end up or down 5%. I don't know what's going to happen.
This week, the ASX 200 could end up or down 10%. I don't know what's going to happen.
This month, the ASX 200 could finish up or down another 20%. I don't know what's going to happen.
The thing is, year after year we don't know what the share market is going to do that year. But, historically, shares do usually go up each year.
It's best not to guess what's going to happen this year. The more you try to guess the more chance you're likely to be wrong.
What you can do to be right
It's a silly game to try to guess what the share market will do in the short-term. What you can is say that over the long-term, you're very likely to make a good amount of money. History tells us that over 10-year, 15-year and 20-year time periods, nearly all of those periods show very good returns. So just start putting some money to work. Maybe not all of it, but some of it.
Very infrequently there will be a GFC-type event, perhaps 2020 is another one, but you'd have to be unlucky to invest most of your money at the worst possible time.
You can never tell when a crash is coming, that's why it's so unexpected. Who would have thought we'd be talking about a healthcare crisis in 2020?
The decisions you can make is by thinking of the different elements of what's going on and why you can still be positive for the long-term. We know that the market recovered after the Spanish Flu and the GFC. We know that lots of healthcare organisations are working on cures and vaccines. We know that governments around the world are doing what they think is best for the country. We know that China seems to have gotten the spread under control.
This could get worse in the short-term. But in the long-term the share market always goes up again. And shares will look really cheap when this calms down with how low interest rates are. There's a good chance I'm going to invest today.
