The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price has crashed 35% in just four weeks.
CBA shares were hitting new 52-week highs just before Valentine's Day of over $90 a share, an unthinkably short time ago.
Today, the CBA share price is going for under $60 at $59.97 at the time of writing. At one stage, it reached lows of $57.16. It's the lowest Commonwealth Bank shares have been at since November 2012.
Why are CBA shares hitting the floor?
Well, the coronavirus pandemic that's crashing the entire S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is mostly to blame. The ASX 200 has lost 30% in the same period.
But 2020 is looking like it's going to be an especially bleak year for CommBank and all of the other ASX banks. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the official cash rate once more this month to a record low 0.50%. At least another rate cut this year is almost a certainty now, which would leave interest rates at virtually zero. The RBA has also floated the idea of further 'unconventional' monetary policy – which could very well mean quantitative easing in Australia.
That's terrible news for any bank. No one is going to want to store cash in a bank if it's receiving no interest (or even negative interest). And banks like CBA will be forced to lend out money for mortgages at lower and lower rates.
Profits are almost certainly going to be squeezed – and that means dividends will likely follow suit.
If you think the CBA share price is bleak though, the other 'big four' ASX banks are faring far worse. National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) and Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) are all at levels not seen since the depths of the GFC over ten years ago.
Are Commonwealth Bank shares a buy today?
Even though the CBA share price is looking historically cheap, I don't think there's a whole lot of value right now.
As discussed, the banks' immediate future is looking rather bleak, and I don't see this conundrum ending anytime soon. CommBank's earnings, profits, and dividends are likely to come under extreme pressure in 2020 and possibly well beyond.
Investing into the unknown is not a great strategy, and that's why I won't be touching the ASX banks – even at current prices.
