Australia is known as a sport loving nation, but forget about rugby, swimming or cricket – I reckon watching property prices is our favourite national pastime.
News about property always seems to dominate our news cycle – especially when it's negative. Despite nearly a decade of double-digit property growth, the dip in sentiment that hit the market across 2017 and last year got everyone a-talking about an impending crash and all the doom and gloom that goes with it. Headlines about housing 'crashing the economy' abounded, and shares of our big four banks had a particularly rough time during the period (although the Royal Commission didn't help).
But according to reporting in the Australian Financial Review (AFR), it's Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) that is predicting a rapid turnaround in our nation's housing market, with the bank doubling its property price target for 2020. The AFR reports that CBA is now forecasting the national dwelling price to rise by 6.1% by the end of next year, which is twice what our biggest bank was predicting back in July.
Naturally, Sydney and Melbourne are expected to lead the charge, with CBA expecting price appreciation of 7% and 8%, respectively. Brisbane and Canberra prices are expected to rise by 4% and Adelaide and Hobart by a more modest 3%.
What's behind this turnaround?
Well, there's little doubt that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s 3 interest rates cuts this year would have helped this turnaround. Lower interest rates translates into lower loan rates for mortgages and investment loans.
The election results earlier this year also offered some assistance in my opinion. Now that the current capital gains tax and negative gearing policies will remain in place for the foreseeable future, investing certainty has undoubtably improved.
Foolish takeaway
If CBA's predictions hold true, it bodes well for the ASX and the big banks in particular. But trying to predict the future is a fickle business, and who knows what next year will bring.
