What top brokers are saying about the Baby Bunting share price crash

Shareholders have spat the dummy with the Baby Bunting Group Ltd (ASX: BBN) share price falling again today following the toy retailer's disappointing trading update on Tuesday.

| More on:
a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Shareholders have spat the dummy with the Baby Bunting Group Ltd (ASX: BBN) share price falling again today following the toy retailer's disappointing trading update on Tuesday.

The Baby Bunting share price lost 0.9% to $3.47 as the S&P/ASX 200 (Index:^AXJO) (ASX:XJO) index shed 0.7%.

Most retailers are also having a bad day. The Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN) share price slumped 2% to $4.40, the JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH) share price tumbled 1.6% to $34.76 and the Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) share price fell 1.8% to $38.69.

Weakness may not last

But Baby Bunting is the one in the "time out" corner as the stock has given up around a third of its value over two days after management warned that like-for-like sales slowed in the last eight weeks.

However, the drop in its share price could be a buying opportunity as most top brokers are sticking to their "buy" recommendation on the stock.

Citigroup is one that's still bullish on Baby Bunting as it believes the sales slowdown is temporary.

"The AGM trading update implies LFL sales growth slowed to +1.5% (CitiE) over the last 8 weeks of 1H20e (till 6 Oct 19) relative to the first 6 weeks (+5.2%)," said Citigroup.

"We forecast LFL sales to improve over the remaining 12 weeks of 1H20e to +5.1%."

The improvement is driven by online sales momentum, management's FY20 guidance which implies mid-single digit LFL sales growth, the end of clearance sales by competitors that are closing down and the company's newly launched exclusive brand Nuna.

Citi has a price target of $3.94 a share.

Gross margin a redeeming factor

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is another urging investors to buy the dip. While LFL sales slowed recently, the broker is encouraged by the retailer's better than expected gross margins which increased by 270 basis points to 36.6%.

This was underpinned by private label and exclusive product penetration growth, and lower clearance activity.

"Seasonally 1Q20 is a lighter sales period (<20% sales FY historically). Given the strength in [gross margin], a recovery in [LFL sales] towards target implies that the mid-to-upper end of guidance is achievable," said Macquarie.

Macquarie has a 12-month price target of $3.80 per share.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley reiterated its "outperform" recommendation on the stock as the broker was also impressed with Baby Bunting's gross margin expansion and its car seat installation acquisitions (this business delivered LFL growth of 29% year-on-year).

Morgan Stanley's price target on the stock is $3.50 a share.

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Connect with him on Twitter @brenlau.

The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Wesfarmers Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Retail Shares

A woman looks at a tablet device while in the aisles of a hardware style store amid stacked boxes on shelves representing Bunnings and the Wesfarmers share price
Retail Shares

Wesfarmers shares are down 7% from a 52-week high. Can they recover?

Down but not out. Is this a buying opportunity?

Read more »

JB Hi-Fi staffer helping customer share price
Retail Shares

Harvey Norman share price lifts as franchise continues growth

Consumers might be spending again.

Read more »

Two happy woman looking at a tablet.
Retail Shares

2 ASX retail shares that look like Black Friday bargain buys

These stocks look like appealing opportunities.

Read more »

A woman wearing jewellery shrugs
Retail Shares

Lovisa share price slides as sales growth fails to impress

ASX 200 investors are bidding down Lovisa shares on Friday. But why?

Read more »

Man with diving gear on in a bathtub.
Retail Shares

Own Wesfarmers shares? Here's why Bunnings is in hot water this week

Wesfarmers is getting some unwanted attention from its Bunnings operations.

Read more »

A woman sits at her computer with her chin resting on her hand as she contemplates her next potential investment.
Retail Shares

Up 90%, this ASX 200 retail stock's CEO just sold $500,000 worth

What could this mean?

Read more »

View of a mine site.
Retail Shares

Why buying Wesfarmers shares could provide unique lithium exposure

In the last 12 months, the stock has rallied more than 28%.

Read more »

Photo of two women shopping.
Retail Shares

Why one leading fund manager thinks this fallen ASX All Ords stock is a turnaround buy

This is a bargain stock, according to a leading fundie.

Read more »