It would be churlish of me to bring up Sunday night's State of Origin game.
No, really. I mean, sure, I'm a New South Welshman. And sure, we won by a near-record margin.
But, be that as it may — and it's all true — it would be churlish.
No-one likes a boastful winner.
And — and here's the rub — there's a very good chance that our success is only fleeting, at least based on the last decade's results.
The only thing Queenslanders like more than winning a State of Origin series is doing it when we Cockroaches think we might just win.
Plus — and I hardly believe it, but I'm assured it's true — apparently most of the rest of the country doesn't care.
I know. I find it hard to believe, too.
Call it jealousy. Call it a lack of understanding. Call it a crying shame.
But, and I say again, it's true.
Somewhere, in some small corners of the country (you know, in Victoria, Tasmania, the Northern Territory as well as the South and Western states of Australia), they apparently have two figs, but wouldn't give either of them — at least as far as the great game of Rugby League is concerned.
Yes, Philistines, I know. But facts are facts.
Thankfully, most of my colleagues happen to live in Rugby League states. I don't say that as a slight on the other (lesser, by definition) states, you understand.
Just that when it comes to sport, most of the team are fans of at least one code of Rugby — making the office watercooler a more vibrant place this time of year.
Except — and here's where they really lose me — some of my fellow New South Welshmen either didn't know the game was on, or they didn't care.
One of them doesn't really 'get' sport at all.
Of course, an official warning followed, and HR will be taking further action.
In all seriousness, though, it prompted a really interesting conversation.
For those of us for whom watching or participating in sport is second nature, it can be hard to imagine just how our fellow humans couldn't possibly share our interest.
Just as it's hard for them to fathom what's going on when we yell, in an apoplectic rage, at the poor referee or umpire just trying to do their best.
As my wife will tell you, "They've been doing it all day, sir" is a common refrain — and not only when I'm at the game. How it's possible that the referee can't hear me through the telly is something modern science is yet to resolve.
And yet, my reality is my reality, just as my non-sports-obsessed colleagues' is theirs. Yes, even AFL fans have their own reality (though St Kilda supporters, I'm quietly informed, don't always share the same reality as the other AFL fans. I pass that on merely as information; I'll leave that to you Southerners to resolve one way or the other.)
What's the difference?
Biology? Maybe.
Environment? Possibly.
Experience? Potentially.
My young bloke is a fourth generation Sydney Roosters fan, despite none of the family living in the Eastern Suburbs for the best part of half a century.
He's pretty much inherited the team. I'm pretty sure he's absorbed the interest in sport from those around him. And yes, humans have gathered to watch gladiators fight for centuries.
(No, not that Gladiators. Not the one You know, the one with Mike Whitney as the black-and-white-outfitted referee. You know, the Russell Crowe kind. Anyway, I digress…)
Thankfully, I'm a better investor and advisor than I am an evolutionary biologist.
But — while we can use sporting analogies a little too often when it comes to business and investing — the whole State of Origin thing is worth considering, especially when you're investing.
Coca-Cola drinkers are something of a tribe, aren't they?
So are the wearers of this season's coolest sneakers. And the 'tweens who shop for stationery at Smiggle.
Brand loyalty, especially these days when you don't have to worry about being poisoned by unbranded food, is almost completely irrational. That's not a criticism, by the way.
Or, if it is, I'm guilty of it, too.
Think about the Apple fans. Is there a more diehard group on the planet? They'd put Queenslanders in the shade for pure passion.
You don't have to be an Apple fan to recognise the company's pull. Or to love soft drinks to know that the red and white can is worth at least double the price of a homebrand cola in most people's eyes.
And here's the thing — every fan is completely able to rationalise their passion.
"Coke tastes better. That's why it's worth paying double for"
"Mercedes makes better cars. Of course they're worth 5 times the price of a Kia"
"Apple products look better. Feel better. They just work"
Are those people wrong? No. At least, not in their own eyes.
And in our eyes? Who are we to say our judgement is superior to theirs? I mean, we all intrinsically believe it — or we'd change our minds!
But rationally, we need to accept that our beliefs — like theirs — are the combination of prejudices, experiences, preconceptions and emotions… most of them invisible to our conscious minds.
They're the building blocks of our decision-making. The sports and teams we support, the way we shop and, yes, how we invest.
Let me give you a few recent things that 'everyone knows' by way of example. How about:
"No-one drinks Coke any more" (Sales might be flat, but Coke still sells truckloads of the black fizzy stuff)
Or
"We're all eating more healthily" (Really? Have you seen Macca's sales growth?)
What about
"The internet is going to kill Flight Centre" (that one has been doing the rounds for two decades)
I had a mate who would never invest in beer companies back in the day because 'the beer is terrible'. Maybe it was, but hundreds of thousands of us drank it each week.
As Mark Twain (is misquoted as having) said:
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."
Is the economy really going into recession?
Are ASX tech stocks worth more than 100 times earnings?
Should you really be paying more than 20 times earnings for a supermarket chain with anaemic growth?
The answer is an emphatic 'maybe'.
Just like the chances of NSW taking out a State of Origin series.
And St Kilda winning the flag.
I just don't know which will happen first.
Fool on!
