Bellamy's, a2 Milk, Bubs shares sink on China's new baby formula rules

The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX:A2M) share price is getting hammered.

| More on:
a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Australian Financial Review is reporting that China's government has drawn up new roles for the regulation of the baby formula sector in the country of 1.3 billion people.

According to the AFR the main outcome of the plan is that Chinese baby formula producers could be advanced to gain market share potentially from popular overseas brands. 

As you can guess, local baby formula makers are plunging in response to the news. Take a look at the scoreboard below.

The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2m) share price is down 7% to $13.27.

The Bellamy's Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL) share price is down 4.3% to $7.93.

The Bubs Australia Ltd (ASX: BUB) share price is down 6% to $1.06.

The Wattle Health Australia Ltd (ASX: WHA) is down 7% to 56 cents.

All of these companies have significant Chinese sales and as such all are vulnerable to a Chinese market that is becoming increasingly unpredictable as a consequence of its escalating trade dispute with the US.

Moreover, as China is a one-party state where it's not possible to rely on the law with certainty to enforce a contract for example, the risk is even higher that changing rules favour Chinese companies over overseas companies. 

Companies like Bellamy's and vitamins maker Blackmores Limited (ASX: BKL) have already reported wildly swinging Chinese sales that they attributed to changing demand or sales channels, rather than anything else.

While another exporter to China in Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) has been accused of 'channel stuffing' by short sellers, which is a practice where excess product is sold to wholesale distributors in the U.S. or China for example and the revenue is booked, even though the product has not been sold onto consumers by the distributors.

This is a normal accounting practice, but it's just that it can make sales or demand seem artificially high and swing wildly.

Bellamy's has history on this front and its share price has swung wildly ever since its initial public offering.

Bellamy's currently has a whopping 14% of its shares shorted and is reportedly still waiting on an important license from the Chinese regulator to allow it to continue its sales push into the country. 

In my opinion the only investment grade business out of all of the above is the a2 Milk Company, although of course it's quite possible any of the others go on to deliver better returns.

The key takeaway from today's news though is to remember that all of these China-facing stocks are higher up the risk curve due to the unpredictable nature of sales.

Motley Fool contributor Tom Richardson owns shares of A2 Milk and Blackmores Limited.

You can find Tom on Twitter @tommyr345

The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Blackmores Limited and Treasury Wine Estates Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of A2 Milk. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Bellamy's Australia and BUBS AUST FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Fallers

A worried man holds his head and look at his computer.
Share Fallers

Why Graincorp, Light & Wonder, Orica, and Wildcat shares are falling today

These shares are having a tough time on Thursday. But why?

Read more »

A man with his back to the camera holds his hands to his head as he looks to a jagged red line trending sharply downward representing the ASX tech share sell-off today
Share Fallers

Why Insignia, Light & Wonder, Mineral Resources, and Nuix shares are sinking today

These shares are having a difficult time on hump day. But why?

Read more »

A man sits in despair at his computer with his hands either side of his head, staring into the screen with a pained and anguished look on his face, in a home office setting.
Share Fallers

Why Endeavour, Global Data Centre, OFX, and Paladin Energy shares are dropping today

Why are these shares under pressure today? Let's find out.

Read more »

A man sits wide-eyed at a desk with a laptop open and holds one hand to his forehead with an extremely worried look on his face as he reads news of the Bitcoin price falling today on his mobile phone
Share Fallers

ASX 200 uranium stock alert: Paladin Energy shares just crashed 29%!

Paladin Energy shares are under intense selling pressure on Tuesday.

Read more »

A woman with a sad face looks to be receiving bad news on her phone as she holds it in her hands and looks down at it.
Share Fallers

Why Champion Iron, Endeavour, Infomedia, and Resolute Mining shares are sinking today

These shares are starting the week in the red. But why?

Read more »

A man sits in despair at his computer with his hands either side of his head, staring into the screen with a pained and anguished look on his face, in a home office setting.
Share Fallers

Why Arcadium Lithium, Block, Jumbo, and Mineral Resources shares

These shares are ending the week in the red. Why are investors selling them?

Read more »

A woman with short brown hair and wearing a yellow top looks at the camera with a puzzled and shocked look on her face as the Westpac share price goes down for no reason today
Share Fallers

Why Clearview, NAB, Resolute Mining, and Westpac shares are dropping today

These shares are under pressure today. But why?

Read more »

A man looking at his laptop and thinking.
Bank Shares

Why is the Bendigo Bank share price tanking today?

There are a few things that could be driving this bank lower today.

Read more »