Warning: Goldman Sachs just downgraded ANZ shares

Is the Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) share price a buy?

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It's probably the most popular topic on the sharemarket for institutional, SMSF and 'mum and dad' investors alike.

Should you buy beaten-up big bank shares for dividends?

Well, Goldman Sachs isn't sure either and is sitting on the fence with a 'neutral' rating on Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) shares after running the ruler over its interim profit report on May 1.

Goldmans' prior rating on ANZ shares was 'buy', however, the analysts aren't so keen now due to "valuation and soft near-term operational trends".

The analysts also described ANZ's net interest margin over the first half of its fiscal 2019 as "soft", while they also flagged that "fee pressures in the business were significantly more acute than we had expected".

As a result of these factors and many others Goldmans revised its earnings per share forecasts for fiscal 19, 20 and 21 lower by 2%, 4.1% and 7% respectively.

This translated into a revised $28.62 12-month share price target for ANZ Bank shares, which is just 5% above today's price of $27.67.

If Goldmans' analysts are on the money then investors could expect a total return around 10% over the year ahead including the beneficial effects of dividends which have the advantage of being 'cash in the bank' over paper profits.

However, the banking sector is not in great health generally at the moment with ANZ's big 4 rival National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) handing investors a 16% dividend cut today, with no guarantees that will be the end of the dividend falls.

Motley Fool contributor Tom Richardson has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of National Australia Bank Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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