Here's why all insane valuations will eventually become sane one way or another

Insane valuations will eventually become sane again.

a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The share market, and most other asset classes, have reached continuous highs over the last couple of years.

We've seen other types of valuations used, like a multiple of sales, to justify a high valuation.

Anyone paying for a businesses valued at over 100x the last year's earnings, or even next year's earnings, are pricing in some big expectations.

Some of the shares to trade with those huge triple digit valuations in recent history include Kogan.Com Ltd (ASX: KGN), Medical Developments International Ltd (ASX: MVP) and Afterpay Touch Group Ltd (ASX: APT).

I may have cherry picked those examples, but they have all fallen significantly since their all-time highs. If you buy at an extremely high valuation the growth expectations are priced in for years.

That means there's a period of several financial years where the market may decide your hotshot stock isn't worth as much as you think.

Rising interest rates mean that only the worthiest of fast-growing businesses can command such a multiple. WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) has fallen more than 25% since September yet it still trades at 81x FY19's estimated earnings. It's trading at 39x FY21's earnings, which is still a hefty price.

Electronic PCB software market darling Altium Limited (ASX: ALU) is 'only' trading at 40x FY19's earnings – it seems like a bargain compared to WiseTech!

Of course, the same can be said in reverse. A business that is trading with a very low valuation and achieves profit growth will eventually be too cheap for the market to ignore. I thought Zenitas Healthcare Limited (ASX: ZNT) was too cheap to ignore for a business growing nicely organically.

Foolish takeaway

Two shares that seem to be trading very cheaply to me are Paragon Care Ltd (ASX: PGC) and Apiam Animal Health Ltd (ASX: AHX). They are both achieving decent organic growth and are trading at around 10x FY19's estimated earnings.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison owns shares of Altium, Apiam Animal Health Ltd, and Paragon Care Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO, Altium, and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Kogan.com ltd, Paragon Care Limited, and Zenitas Healthcare Ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

Animation of a man measuring a percentage sign, symbolising rising interest rates.
Share Market News

Here's when Westpac says the RBA will now cut interest rates

Will borrowers need to wait until the middle of next year for relief? Let's find out.

Read more »

Boys making faces and flexing.
Opinions

3 ASX 300 shares to buy and hold for the long run

I believe these stocks have loads of growth potential.

Read more »

Young girl drinking milk showing off muscles.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

It was a great end to the trading week for ASX investors today.

Read more »

Hands reaching high for a trophy with a sunset in the background.
Record Highs

The ASX 200 Index is on its way to another all-time high today. Here's why

These blue chip stocks are driving the index towards a new record today...

Read more »

Group of friends trading stocks on their phones. symbolising the 3 most traded ASX 200 shares today
Share Market News

3 ASX mining stocks topping the most-traded list in October

Chinese stimulus news and company announcements likely contributed to the higher trading activity.

Read more »

A man sits thoughtfully on the couch with a laptop on his lap.
Share Gainers

3 ASX 200 stocks smashing the benchmark this week

These three ASX 200 stocks are leading the charge this week. Here’s how.

Read more »

Two people tired and resting after sports race.
Broker Notes

Fundie rates 2 ASX 200 stocks in short-term pain but with long-term gain potential

Blackwattle Investment Partners sees these 2 ASX 200 stocks as worthy of a buy and hold strategy.

Read more »

A young woman holding her phone smiles broadly and looks excited, after receiving good news.
Share Gainers

Why A2 Milk, EOS, GQG, and Mineral Resources shares are racing higher today

These shares are ending the week strongly. But why?

Read more »