Are you ready for ~$12bn dividend bonanza in November?

Investors will soon be diving into a big pool of dividends next month as three of the big four banks hand in their full year results. But will this be enough to lure investors back into the embattled sector?

| More on:
a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Investors will soon be diving into a big pool of dividends next month as three of the big four banks hand in their full-year results.

The market is yet to get excited about the wall of dividends with the share price of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) and National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB) slipping 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, at the time of writing, although Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) has managed to claw its way back to trade 0.8% higher ahead of the market close.

While there are some concerns that the three banks may have to lower their final dividends in the face of intense earnings pressure, the three are still likely to throw around $8 billion in payments to shareholders in November.

If you included franking credits, eligible shareholders could be sharing a dividend pie that's closer to $12 billion in value.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) has already reported its results and paid a final dividend.

The more significant question is whether the reporting season will mark a turnaround in the embattled sector, which is the worst performer on the S&P/ASX 200 (Index:^AXJO) (ASX: XJO) index over the last year.

It's hard to believe that financials have fared even worse than telecommunications given the big crash in Telstra Corporation Ltd's (ASX: TLS) share price, but at least Telstra and its peers didn't have to face a bruising Royal Commission.

Some experts believe we will get a turnaround next month as so much bad news is already in the share prices of the banks. All the banks need to do is to reassure the market that things aren't getting any worse and that they have turned a corner.

I am certainly not ruling out the potential for a relief rally in the near-term, but I am not sure that it will be the re-rating event that bank supporters are hoping for.

For one, we still do not know what Commissioner Kenneth Hayne will recommend when he hands in his final report early next year.

New regulations for the sector seem unlikely but existing laws and oversight will almost definitely be beefed up.

The bigger unknown in my view is the health of our housing market. Experts are still downgrading their outlook and forecast for the sector with Morgan Stanley and NAB the latest to take a more bearish view our residential market (click here for more details).

I don't think we need to wait for our housing market to return to growth before jumping back into the banks, but as I've said before, we should at least wait for a deceleration in house price declines before turning bullish on the banking sector.

We may need to wait until sometime in 2019 for that.

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Limited, National Australia Bank Limited, and Westpac Banking. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of National Australia Bank Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

A young woman sits at her desk in deep contemplation with her hand to her chin while seriously considering information she is reading on her laptop.
Bank Shares

CBA shares are now worth a total of more than $300 billion. Here's why that's a problem

CBA’s ever growing stock market dominance is raising red flags. But why?

Read more »

An excited man stretches his arms out above his head as he reaches a mountain peak.
Record Highs

Breaking: CBA shares hit a new record of $180

CBA shares can't possibly keep rising can they?

Read more »

A small child in a judo outfit with a green belt strikes a martial arts pose with his hand thrust forward.
Bank Shares

Forget the big 4 banks, Macquarie tips 11% upside for this ASX All Ords Financials stock

This broker is telling investors to look beyond CBA.

Read more »

View of a business man's hand passing a $100 note to another with a bank in the background.
Bank Shares

What price should I pay for the Big 4 banks?

Macquarie has updated its target price on Australia’s Big 4 banks.

Read more »

Bank building with word Bank on it.
Bank Shares

What happened with the big four ASX 200 bank stocks in May?

Guess which ASX 200 bank stock led the charge higher again in May.

Read more »

An ASX investor in a business shirt and tie looks at his computer screen and scratches his head with one hand wondering if he should buy ASX shares yet
Bank Shares

After the recent RBA rate cut, why is Macquarie underweight ASX bank shares?

Macquarie is not banking on strong returns from this sector.

Read more »

Business people discussing project on digital tablet.
Bank Shares

CBA vs Macquarie shares: Which one is best?

Ord Minnett has given its verdict on these giants.

Read more »

A woman wearing yellow smiles and drinks coffee while on laptop.
Bank Shares

How the CBA share price smashed the benchmark to close May at all-time highs

I hope you didn’t sell your CBA shares in April!

Read more »