Is the Australian dollar set to crack under US70 cents?

The path of least resistance for the Aussie is down but the ASX winners from our falling dollar may not be as obvious as you'd think.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

a woman

The Aussie battler is clawing back some of yesterday's losses with the currency inching up from its two-and-a-half-year low.

But some experts believe it's only a matter of time before our dollar tumbles below the US70 cent-mark, which will open the way for the Aussie to fall to around US65 cents.

The path of least resistance for the Aussie is down and the downtrend is likely to last for months, according to the Australian Financial Review. This will create winners and losers on the ASX – but the winners may not be as obvious as you might think.

Growing hostilities between Chinese and US trade officials will keep the greenback well supported as the two largest economies appear to be heading towards an all-out trade war.

Trump's tax cuts are also pushing the US dollar higher even though this will only be a temporary shot in the arm for the US economy.

This is because the fiscal stimulus may well force the US Federal Reserve to lift interest rates by more than it normally would as the central bank tries to rein in inflation.

On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia has no room to lift rates and the growing differential between the official interest rates between our two countries will only keep the Aussie dollar on the backfoot.

What's more, there doesn't seem to be any obvious circuit-breaker for our embattled dollar, which has fallen even harder than the Philippine peso!

This is probably because the Aussie battler is seen as the perfect instrument to short-sell as a hedge against a slowdown in China due to the trade war.

But investors thinking that they should buy any ASX stock with large US dollar exposure in response will need to think more deeply about the strategy.

It probably won't be the best outcome to buy companies that generate US dollar sales if their business is leveraged to global economic cycles.

While I like stocks like logistics group Brambles Limited (ASX: BXB), this is a good example of what I mean.

I think US-exposed stocks with less cyclical businesses may prove to be a better safe harbour. This includes diagnostic imaging group Sonic Healthcare Limited (ASX: SHL), plumbing equipment supplier Reliance Worldwide Corporation Ltd (ASX: RWC) and even glove maker Ansell Limited (ASX: ANN) – assuming it can avoid being caught up in the tariffs.

Looking for other stocks that are well placed to beat the S&P/ASX 200 (Index:^AXJO) (ASX: XJO) in FY19? The experts at the Motley Fool have picked their best blue-chip stock ideas and you can find out what these are by following the link below.

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of Brambles Limited and Reliance Worldwide Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Ansell Ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

A man rests his chin in his hands, pondering what is the answer?
Opinions

Is that the end of the ASX share market crash?

The stock market looks like it has started to recover.

Read more »

Frustrated man at computer desk.
Share Market News

5 most traded ASX 200 shares since the war began

Only one of them is an energy stock.

Read more »

A man holding a cup of coffee puts his thumb up and smiles while at laptop.
Opinions

3 reasons to buy NAB shares today

Here's why I think the ASX bank stock is still a buy.

Read more »

Excited couple celebrating success while looking at smartphone.
Broker Notes

Up 222% in a year, why this ASX energy share is forecast to more than double your money again

A leading broker forecasts more outsized gains to come from this rocketing ASX energy share. But why?

Read more »

A man holds his head in his hands after seeing bad news on his laptop screen.
Broker Notes

3 massively popular ASX 200 shares experts say to sell (inc. CBA)

Let's see why they are bearish on these names this week.

Read more »

Two workers working with a large copper coil in a factory.
Broker Notes

Should you buy this $8 billion ASX 200 copper stock amid surging global demand?

A leading analyst drills into the outlook for this $8 billion ASX copper miner.

Read more »

Woman with an amazed expression has her hands and arms out with a laptop in front of her.
Share Gainers

Why BHP, EchoIQ, Life360, and Qantas shares are racing higher today

These shares are having a solid session on Tuesday. But why?

Read more »

A male investor wearing a blue shirt looks off to the side with a miffed look on his face as the share price declines.
Share Fallers

Why DroneShield, Guzman Y Gomez, IAG, and Myer shares are falling today

These shares are out of form on Tuesday. But why?

Read more »