Gold has found a new best friend in Donald J. Trump as the 45th president of the United States is spoiling for a trade war with both traditional allies and adversaries.
A global trade war would be a very bad outcome for everyone and the uncertainty is pushing the precious metal towards 4½-year highs.
But it's not only the likes of Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) that are poised to outperform the S&P/ASX 200 (Index:^AXJO) (ASX:XJO).
There's another commodity that is also storming up the charts – oil. The West Texas Intermediate ( WTI) and Brent benchmark pricing for crude have jumped over 2% during US trade on Friday and President Trump's threats to tear up the deal with Iran have lit a fire under the commodity.
Trump had long been a critic of the deal that lifts sanctions against Iran in exchange for the country abandoning its nuclear program.
Re-introducing sanctions against the Middle East state will severely limit its ability to export oil. The Islamic Republic exported close to 1 billion barrels of oil in 2017 and holds around 10% of the world's oil reserves.
If its supply is taken off the market, it will provide a significant uplift in the oil price – something other major oil exporters, including US shale oil producers, may not mind at all (not that I am suggesting a conspiracy here).
It is also interesting that the US is stepping up arms sales to Iran's archrival Saudi Arabia at the same time. This has increased geo-political tensions in the region and has been attributed as another supportive factor for the recent oil price rally.
To complete the trifactor – US weekly oil inventories unexpectedly fell for the first time in a month as more than 2.6 million barrels of crude were taken from storage facilities.
This could be due to the two factors above as refiners may be stocking up ahead of any potential disruption to the oil market.
The uncertainty clouding over the crude oil market is unlikely to be lifted anytime soon either and that means energy stocks like Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL), Oil Search Limited (ASX: OSH), Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) may find support even as the broader market tumbles lower.
But these sectors aren't the only ones that have a bright outlook, particularly over the medium to longer term.
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