Here are Macquarie Group Ltd's conviction buys and sells this reporting season

The broker has complied a list of stocks that are most likely to attract a consensus earnings upgrade and downgrade when they release their profit results this month.

a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The head-on collision between the global market meltdown and reporting season sets the stage for a stellar display of volatility over the coming weeks that is likely to throw up some compelling opportunities.

It's a classic case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater! Get ready to play catch.

If you are wondering which ones you should be reaching out for and which to dodge, the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have done the homework for you.

They have run stocks through a couple of filters and seven have popped out. The first filter is where their earnings estimates are significantly different from consensus.

The second filter is where they see consensus estimates converging on their forecasts. This means when Macquarie has above market estimates on a stock, other brokers have recently been upgrading their valuations, and vice-versa.

"We note that this approach is only focused on the earnings and where we think the consensus will converge to our own forecasts," said the broker.

"Similarly, we are not only confining our window to FY18 forecasts because the result might, in fact, be the catalyst for earnings changes further out in the forecast window."

Stocks with the strongest "long" or "buy" conviction based on their market upgrade potential during this month's reporting season include mining services company Monadelphous Group Limited (ASX: MND), pipe and water solutions group Reliance Worldwide Corporation Ltd (ASX: RWC), building materials supplier Boral Limited (ASX: BLD), insurance broker AUB Group Ltd (ASX: AUB) and free-to-air (FTA) television operator Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC).

It may surprise some to see Nine Entertainment on the list given how the commercial FTA sector has been so badly battered by the digital disruption.

But it's the low expectations that could be its biggest advantage and Macquarie thinks it could deliver a better-than-expected first half result as its ratings and revenue share have been growing.

Further, its cost discipline, the stability in the FTA ad market and a growing digital business mean that Nine Entertainment's earnings momentum may be sustained.

On the flipside, the broker thinks two stocks are at high risk of getting a consensus earnings downgrade this month.

The first is global property investment manager Cromwell Group (ASX: CMW) as it thinks the market is overestimating the financial benefit from Cromwell's European REIT and underestimating the earnings risk from its lease expiry profile.

The other potential downgrade candidate is embattled department store Myer Holdings Ltd (ASX: MYR). While a lot of bad news have been flagged for the retailer, Myer is at risk of suffering another round of earnings downgrades.

There are other stocks that are worth keeping an eye out on, according to the experts at the Motley Fool. They have uncovered three that are well placed to outperform the market in 2018 and beyond.

Click on the free link below to find out what these stocks are and why they should be on your radar.

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of Boral Limited and Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on ⏸️ Investing

A white and black robot in the form of a human being stands in front of a green graphic holding a laptop and discussing robotics and automation ASX shares
Technology Shares

Joining the revolution: How I'd invest in ASX AI shares right now

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) could usher in a new industrial revolution. Here’s how you can invest in it.

Read more »

Close up of baby looking puzzled
Retail Shares

What has happened to the Baby Bunting (ASX:BBN) share price this year?

It's been a volatile year so far for the Aussie nursery retailer. We take a closer look

Read more »

woman holds sign saying 'we need change' at climate change protest
ETFs

3 ASX ETFs that invest in companies fighting climate change

If you want to shift some of your investments into more ethical companies, exchange-traded funds can offer a good option

Read more »

a jewellery store attendant stands at a cabinet displaying opulent necklaces and earrings featuring diamonds and precious stones.
⏸️ Investing

The Michael Hill (ASX: MHJ) share price poised for growth

Investors will be keeping an eye on the Michael Hill International Limited (ASX: MHJ) share price today. The keen interest…

Read more »

ASX shares buy unstoppable asx share price represented by man in superman cape pointing skyward
⏸️ Investing

The Atomos (ASX:AMS) share price is up 15% in a week

The Atomos (ASX: AMS) share price has surged 15% this week. Let's look at what's ahead as the company build…

Read more »

Two people in suits arm wrestle on a black and white chess board.
Retail Shares

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) share price stack up against Nick Scali (ASX:NCK)?

How does the Temple & Webster (ASX: TPW) share price stack up against rival furniture retailer Nick Scali Limited (ASX:…

Read more »

A medical researcher works on a bichip, indicating share price movement in ASX tech companies
Healthcare Shares

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since its IPO

The Aroa (ASX:ARX) share price has surged 60% since the Polynovo (ASX: PNV) competitor listed on the ASX in July.…

Read more »

asx investor daydreaming about US shares
⏸️ How to Invest

How to buy US shares from Australia right now

If you have been wondering how to buy US shares from Australia to gain exposure from the highly topical market,…

Read more »